Sanmina Skyrockets 23.16% to 52-Week High—What’s Fueling This Record Surge?

Summary
• Sanmina (SANM) surges 23.16% to $121.12, hitting a 52-week high of $121.55
• Intraday range spans from $103.95 to $121.55, with 2.65M shares traded
• Caterpillar (CAT), sector leader, declines 1.11%, contrasting SANM’s rally
• Sector news highlights LG’s $50M lidar investment and Stellantis’ $1.7B tariff hit

Sanmina’s explosive move defies a mixed industrial machinery sector, as broader trade optimism and tech-sector tailwinds lift the stock to a new annual peak. The stock’s surge, driven by sector-wide optimism around U.S.-EU trade agreements and LG’s lidar investment, highlights divergent momentum in manufacturing subsectors. With Caterpillar underperforming, the rally underscores Sanmina’s unique positioning in a rapidly evolving industrial landscape.

Sector Optimism and Trade Developments Drive Surge
Sanmina’s record rally aligns with broader industrial machinery sector optimism, fueled by the U.S.-EU trade deal’s 15% tariff framework and LG’s $50M lidar investment. These developments signal a pivot toward advanced manufacturing technologies, particularly in automation and intelligent systems, where Sanmina operates. While sector peers like Caterpillar struggle with U.S. tariff headwinds, Sanmina’s exposure to next-gen industrial tech and its recent breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., 101.42 30D MA) have attracted speculative and institutional buyers.

Industrial Machinery Sector Rally Contrasts with Caterpillar's Decline
The industrial machinery sector shows mixed momentum, with Sanmina’s 23% surge clashing against Caterpillar’s 1.11% decline. While trade agreements and lidar innovation buoy Sanmina, Caterpillar’s struggles with U.S. tariffs highlight divergent exposures within the sector. Investors are rotating toward tech-driven industrial players, reflecting a shift in capital toward automation and smart manufacturing, as evidenced by LG’s strategic bets.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Sanmina’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: 81.83 (well below current price)
• RSI: 41.02 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: 1.57 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 106.64 upper band (overbought)

Sanmina’s 52-week high breakout and overbought RSI suggest short-term momentum, but the 24.47 P/E ratio and 5.13% turnover rate indicate room for follow-through. Two top options for bullish exposure:

• SANM20250815C120 (Call, Strike $120, Expiry 8/15):
- Implied Volatility (IV): 41.42% (mid-range)
- LVR: 25.60% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.539 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.2698 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.03587 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 9,742 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $7.17/share
- This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a sustained rally.

• SANM20250815C125 (Call, Strike $125, Expiry 8/15):
- IV: 34.45% (reasonable)
- LVR: 62.02% (very high leverage)
- Delta: 0.3328 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1865 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.03948 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 1,831 (moderate)
- Payoff (5% upside): $2.17/share
- High-risk/high-reward, suitable for aggressive bulls.

Aggressive bulls may consider SANM20250815C120 into a break above $125.

Backtest Sanmina Stock Performance
The Sanofi (SANM) stock has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term performance following a significant intraday surge of at least 23%. The backtest data indicates that after such an event, the 3-day win rate is 52.68%, the 10-day win rate is 59.24%, and the 30-day win rate is 60.62%. This suggests that SANM tends to experience gains in the immediate aftermath of a strong intraday rally.

Bullish Momentum Unlikely to Subside—Act Now on Key Levels
Sanmina’s 52-week high breakout and sector-specific tailwinds suggest momentum remains intact. Investors should monitor the 121.55 level as a critical psychological and technical resistance point. If the stock clears this, the 101.42 30D MA and 81.83 200D MA provide robust support for a sustained rally. Meanwhile, Caterpillar’s -1.11% decline underscores sector divergence, emphasizing Sanmina’s unique positioning in next-gen industrial tech. Aggressive traders should prioritize the SANM20250815C120 call for a potential breakout trade.