Sanmina Skyrocketed 11.8%—What’s Fueling This Sudden Surge?

Summary
• Sanmina (SANM) surged 11.8% intraday, hitting $110.39, its 52-week high.
• Q3 2025 earnings report showed $2.04B revenue (up 10.9% YoY) and 5.7% non-GAAP operating margin.
• ZT Systems acquisition projected to add $5–6B in annual revenue, doubling Sanmina’s top line.

Sanmina’s stock erupted on July 29, 2025, driven by a blockbuster Q3 earnings report and a bold acquisition strategy. The company’s revenue, operating margin, and EPS all exceeded expectations, while the ZT Systems deal signaled transformative growth potential. With a 12% intraday jump, investors are scrambling to decode this momentum.

Earnings Outperformance and ZT Systems Acquisition Ignite Optimism
Sanmina’s 11.8% surge stems from its Q3 2025 earnings report, which revealed $2.04B in revenue (up 10.9% YoY), a 5.7% non-GAAP operating margin (40 bps improvement YoY), and $1.53 in non-GAAP EPS (22.8% YoY growth). The company also provided a bullish outlook for Q4, forecasting $2.0–2.1B in revenue. Crucially, the ZT Systems acquisition—set to add $5–6B in annual net revenue—was highlighted as a catalyst for doubling Sanmina’s revenue within three years. CEO Jure Sola emphasized the strategic value of ZT’s $1.65B IMS segment and $422M CPS business, which boast a 14.7% gross margin. This combination of operational discipline, margin expansion, and transformative M&A has galvanized investor sentiment.

EMS Sector Gains Momentum as Flex (FLEX) Trails 2.89% Rise
The Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) sector, represented by Flex (FLEX) with a 2.89% intraday gain, is broadly positive. Sanmina’s 11.8% rally outpaces sector peers, reflecting its unique combination of margin resilience and growth via acquisition. While Flex and others face macroeconomic headwinds, Sanmina’s ZT Systems deal offers a clear path to scale, leveraging ZT’s $2B working capital and $798M cash reserves. The EMS sector’s focus on industrial and data center demand aligns with Sanmina’s strategic bets, but its M&A-driven growth model distinguishes it from more conservative peers.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Sanmina’s Volatility
• RSI: 41.02 (oversold), suggesting potential rebound.
• MACD: 1.58 (bearish), but signal line at 2.81 implies divergence.
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $109.96, above the upper band of $106.64, indicating overbought conditions.
• 200-day MA: $81.83 (well below current price).

Sanmina’s stock is in a short-term bearish trend but trading above key technical levels. A breakout above $110.39 (52-week high) could trigger a test of $115–$120. The options chain offers two high-leverage contracts: SANM20250815C105 and SANM20250815C115.

SANM20250815C105:
• Code: SANM20250815C105
• Strike: $105
• Delta: 0.7906 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• IV Ratio: 30.69% (moderate)
• Theta: -0.2584 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0382 (high sensitivity to volatility)
• Turnover: 16,825
• Leverage Ratio: 16.73%
• Payoff (5% up): $4.47 per contract.
This call option is ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the upward move, with high delta and gamma amplifying gains if the stock breaks above $105. The moderate IV and liquidity ensure it’s a practical choice for aggressive bulls.

SANM20250815C115:
• Code: SANM20250815C115
• Strike: $115
• Delta: 0.3085 (moderate sensitivity)
• IV Ratio: 32.10% (moderate)
• Theta: -0.1570 (slower decay)
• Gamma: 0.0447 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 10,445
• Leverage Ratio: 73.63%
• Payoff (5% up): $0.47 per contract.
This option is a high-leverage play for a breakout above $115, with a 73.63% leverage ratio offering explosive returns if the stock surges. However, its lower delta makes it riskier if the move stalls.

Trading Opinion: Aggressive bulls should prioritize SANM20250815C105 for a near-term push above $105. If the stock consolidates, SANM20250815C115 offers high-reward potential with a 5% upside target.

Backtest Sanmina Stock Performance
The backtest of SANM's performance after a 12% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with win rates and returns increasing across various time frames:These results suggest that SANM tends to exhibit positive momentum following a significant intraday surge, making it a stock worth considering for traders looking to capitalize on short-to-medium-term price movements. However, it's important to note that while the historical data indicates a higher win rate and return, there is still a degree of risk involved in such trades, and real-world performance may vary.

Sanmina’s Breakout: Ride the Wave or Wait for Confirmation?
Sanmina’s 11.8% rally is fueled by a rare combination of earnings outperformance and transformative M&A. The ZT Systems acquisition and margin expansion in the CPS segment provide a strong foundation for sustained growth. However, technical indicators like the RSI (41.02) and MACD divergence suggest a potential pullback to test $103.95 (intraday low) before resuming the uptrend. Investors should monitor the $110.39 52-week high as a critical breakout level. Flex (FLEX), the sector leader, is up 2.89%, signaling broader EMS sector optimism. For those seeking action, SANM20250815C105 offers a high-probability play on a continuation of the rally.