SAND Technical Flow: Assessing the Breakout Signal

SAND is trapped in a narrow range, trading between $0.08 and $0.09 with a daily high of $0.0853. This low-volatility environment under a dominant downtrend sets the stage for a potential explosive move. The immediate technical setup hinges on a critical support zone between $0.0844 and $0.0702. A break below $0.0844 would signal a loss of near-term structure, while the deeper $0.0702 level represents a major structural floor that, if breached, could accelerate the decline toward the 52-week low of $0.0707.

On the weekly chart, a bullish pattern is forming: a falling wedge. This configuration typically signals a potential reversal, especially when accompanied by a bullish momentum divergence. However, this positive signal is currently overshadowed by the broader bearish trend, as the price remains below the key EMA20 at $0.10 and the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34.97 confirms the asset is approaching oversold territory, which can fuel short-term rebounds. Yet this oversold condition does not negate the continued downside risk. The RSI is still in a bearish zone, and without a confirmed break above key resistance, the path of least resistance remains down.

Volume and Liquidity Flow

The recent price action is accompanied by a dramatic surge in liquidity. Trading volume has jumped over 400% to reach $167 million, a level not seen in recent months. This spike coincides with the price retesting key support, providing initial validation for the bullish reversal signal being discussed.

Yet this bullish context is immediately tempered by the broader trend. Despite the volume surge, the price remains firmly below the key EMA20 at $0.10. The Supertrend indicator still gives a bearish signal, and the overall market structure is dominated by a downtrend. The volume spike, therefore, appears to be a short-term liquidity event rather than a confirmed trend change.

The implication is clear: the volume surge provides the necessary fuel for a potential breakout, but the underlying trend remains bearish. For the bullish signal to hold, the price must now sustainably break above the EMA20 resistance. Without that, the high volume could simply represent a short squeeze or a failed retest, leaving the path of least resistance still downward.

Catalysts and Key Watchpoints

The breakout thesis hinges on a decisive break above the $0.10 EMA20 resistance. This level is the immediate barrier; a sustained close above it would invalidate the bearish Supertrend signal and confirm the start of a trend reversal. Without this move, the bullish wedge pattern remains incomplete, and the high volume seen earlier could be a failed attempt to trap buyers.

If the price breaks above $0.10, the next major resistance is at $0.1467. A successful test of this level would confirm the wedge breakout and open the path to the primary bullish target. According to technical analysis, a confirmed breakout could see the price move toward $0.22 or even higher. This would represent a significant recovery from the current range and a major shift in market sentiment.

The primary risk is a breakdown below the key support zone. A break below $0.0702 would confirm the ongoing downtrend and likely accelerate the decline toward the 52-week low near $0.0707. This scenario would render the bullish wedge pattern a false signal and increase the risk of a sharp, low-volume dump. For now, the setup is binary: watch the $0.10 level for a reversal signal, or the $0.0702 level for a continuation of the bear market.