Samson Mow Sees Bitcoin Bear Market Ending: 'Fundamentals Haven't Changed'

Bitcoin remains in a bear market as defined by several financial and on-chain indicators. The price has declined roughly 41% from its early October 2025 peak, trading below both the 200-day and 365-day moving averages. Analysts at CryptoQuant and Coinbase Institutional have labeled the current environment as a bear regime, citing weak demand and defensive positioning in the derivatives market.

Samson Mow, a prominent Bitcoin advocate and executive at Galaxy Digital, has stated that the bear market could still end, but the fundamentals of Bitcoin have not changed. He argues that the underlying value and use cases of the asset remain intact, and the current price correction is part of a broader liquidity-driven cycle. Mow's comments reflect a growing sentiment among long-term investors who continue to see Bitcoin as undervalued despite the selloff.

On-chain data further supports a bearish reading. The Bull Score Index, a composite measure of on-chain health from CryptoQuant, recently hit zero—the most bearish level possible. Bitcoin's 365-day moving average currently sits at $101,448, and the price has not reclaimed that level since November 2025. This has led analysts to suggest that the bear market could persist until mid-2026 or longer.

Why Did This Happen?

A sharp reversal in institutional demand has contributed to the current bearish environment. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from being net buyers in 2025 to net sellers in 2026, with a cumulative outflow of around 10,600 BTC. This represents a 93% decline in demand compared to the same period the previous year. The weakening demand has been compounded by a contraction in stablecoin liquidity, with Tether's USDT market capitalization growth turning negative.

U.S. retail investor participation has also remained subdued despite the price decline. The Coinbase premium, which historically indicated strong U.S. demand during bull markets, has stayed negative since mid-October 2025. This suggests a lack of retail-driven buying pressure, which has traditionally helped push prices higher during market downturns.

How Did Markets React?

The bearish sentiment has been reflected in price action and investor behavior. Bitcoin has fallen to around $73,000 as of February 7, 2026, down 13% over the past five days. The decline accelerated after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. government would not bail out the crypto market. This fueled broader market selling and reinforced the bearish outlook.

Whale and mid-term holder activity has also shifted toward de-risking. Wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC sent a significant volume to exchanges, and spot flows have remained negative for weeks. This suggests that investors are trimming positions and preparing for further downside rather than accumulating at current levels.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring three key signals to determine when the bear market may end. The first is trend reclamation—when Bitcoin regains and holds above long-term moving averages like the 200-day or 365-day for multiple weeks. The second is demand inflection, which would be marked by a shift from negative or subdued flows to sustained inflows. The third is risk appetite normalization, where options markets return to balanced levels and hedge demand decreases. According to analysis, the current bear market has already been shorter and less severe than past cycles, with a drawdown of roughly 40%—well below the 70% declines seen in prior bear markets.

However, multiple analysts still project a potential drop toward $60,000, which would bring the total drawdown closer to 50%. This suggests that while the bear market is less damaging in percentage terms, it is still far from over.

Institutional investors continue to maintain a bullish stance despite the bearish environment. According to a recent Coinbase and Glassnode survey, 62% of institutions held or increased their Bitcoin exposure since October 2025, and 70% view the asset as undervalued. This divergence between sentiment and price highlights the complexity of the current market.

The bear market may end when demand and liquidity re-accelerate, regardless of the halving calendar. This approach, supported by analysts, suggests that the market is shifting away from a traditional four-year cycle toward a liquidity-based regime. The next few months will be critical for determining whether the market has bottomed or if further declines are likely.

Until Bitcoin regains its long-term moving averages and institutional flows turn positive, the bear market is expected to persist. Investors should remain cautious and monitor on-chain and macroeconomic indicators for potential inflection points in the near future.