Samsara Stock Soars 17.44% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Turn Bullish

Samsara (IOT) Technical Analysis
Samsara (IOT) surged 17.44% to $42.09 on September 5, 2025, marking its third consecutive gain with an 18.60% advance over this period. Volume spiked to 23.97 million shares, the highest since late June, signaling robust bullish conviction. The following analysis dissects key technical dynamics.
Candlestick Theory
The recent three sessions form a decisive bullish pattern: a Doji candle on September 3 (indicating indecision) followed by two elongating green candles with shrinking lower wicks. The September 5 candle eclipsed the August 28 high of $37.05, converting it into support. Resistance is now evident near $43.50 (June 11 peak), while the August 22 low of $32.55 anchors key long-term support. The absence of upper wicks on the last two candles reflects sustained buying pressure into the close.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($38.20) crossed bullishly above the 100-day MA ($39.80) in late August, a development now validated by the price rally above both levels. The 200-day MA ($44.10) remains a critical overhead resistance, though the gap between the 50-day and 200-day MAs is narrowing, suggesting weakening long-term bearish momentum. Current price action holding firmly above the 50-day MA supports near-term bullish continuation potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histogram bars transitioned positively on August 27, preceding the rally, with the signal line maintaining its upward trajectory. KDJ curves exhibit overbought conditions (K=89, D=85, J=97), though divergence is absent. While MACD supports bullish momentum, KDJ readings suggest potential short-term exhaustion risk near current levels. The convergence of both indicators upward since late August lends credibility to the breakout.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bandwidth contracted to a 3-month low on September 2, signaling reduced volatility before the expansion phase triggered by the 17.44% surge. Price vaulted above the upper band ($40.80) on September 5, typically indicating overextension. Historical parallels (e.g., April 2024) show such breakouts often precede consolidation, but the band expansion magnitude suggests volatility persistence. The middle band ($38.60) now offers pullback support.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 139% volume surge on September 5 versus the 30-day average strongly validates the breakout. Volume progressively increased during the 3-day rally—characteristic of accumulation—and dwarfed the volume during the late-August sell-off. However, the elevated volume occurred near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, warranting monitoring for exhaustion. The volume profile identifies $35–$36 as a high-density support zone.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (72.5) entered overbought territory, aligning with the Bollinger Band breach and KDJ readings. While concerning for contrarians, the indicator has yet to form bearish divergence—price and RSI peaked concurrently. Historically, Samsara’s RSI has sustained >70 levels for 5–7 sessions during strong trends, suggesting the current reading may not immediately derail momentum if volume persists.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the primary downtrend swing high ($58.83 on February 19, 2025) and swing low ($32.55 on August 22, 2025), key retracement levels cluster at $42.20 (38.2%), $45.70 (50%), and $49.20 (61.8%). The September 5 close ($42.09) precisely tested the 38.2% level—a common reversal zone. Confluence exists here with the mid-June consolidation range and the 200-day MA, creating a decisive resistance barrier. A confirmed break above $42.20 may propel price toward $45.70.
Concluding Synthesis
Technical confluence appears at the $42–$42.20 resistance zone (Fibonacci 38.2%, 200-day MA, and June swing highs), reinforced by overbought oscillators (RSI, KDJ, Bollinger Bands). Divergence is absent among momentum indicators, though the KDJ’s extreme reading signals caution. The volume-backed breakout above key MAs and declining long-term MA separation support constructive momentum. While near-term consolidation appears probable after the vertical move, sustained volume above $40 negates bearish reversals. Traders should monitor the $42.20 reaction for trend confirmation.