Samsara Stock Slides 3.9% To $40.69 As Technical Support Nears Breakdown

Samsara (IOT) declined 3.90% in its most recent trading session, closing at $40.69 with a low of $40.08 and high of $41.30 on volume of 9.47 million shares. This extended a downward trajectory from the $48.47 February peak, positioning the stock near critical technical levels. The following analysis applies multiple technical frameworks to the past year's price action.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns show a bearish continuation signal. The June 10 session formed a hammer (low: $39.21, close: $41.94) suggesting potential reversal, but the subsequent failure to hold gains culminated in a June 12 close below the June 11 low ($41.00), confirming bearish resolve. Key support now rests at the June 10 swing low of $39.21, while resistance tiers emerge at $41.30 (recent high), $42.89 (June 11 high), and the $45.00 psychological level. A decisive break below $39.21 would signal further downside vulnerability.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (currently near $43.20) crossed below the 100-day MA (approximately $44.80) in late May, confirming a bearish near-term structure. More significantly, the price has traded below the 200-day MA (around $42.50) since early June, indicating entrenched weakness. The current bearish alignment – with price below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs – demonstrates broad-based selling pressure. The 200-day MA now serves as a formidable resistance ceiling.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains in negative territory after a bearish crossover in late May, signaling sustained downward momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (14-period) shows %K and %D lines compressed near 20, approaching oversold territory but lacking bullish crossover confirmation. While both oscillators reflect oversold conditions, the absence of clear reversal signals – particularly a MACD centerline crossover or K%D upward interception – suggests continued downside risk. Traders should await stronger momentum confirmation before anticipating reversal potential.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident with Bollinger Bandwidth narrowing to yearly lows, indicating a potential breakout or breakdown. Price currently presses against the lower band ($39.80-$40.20), typically a bearish signal in established downtrends. The June 10 swing low of $39.21 aligns with the lower band boundary, making this a critical support zone. A confirmed close below this level could trigger a volatility expansion supporting additional downside.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis reveals bearish confirmation. The June 10 decline (-6.15%) occurred on the year's highest volume (18.68 million shares), validating selling pressure. Follow-through selling on June 12 featured above-average volume (9.47M vs. 30-day avg ~7.5M), suggesting conviction. Conversely, recovery attempts like June 11’s +0.95% gain materialized on below-average volume, indicating weak buying interest. This volume profile supports the continuation of the bearish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (calculated as RSI = [Average Gain / (Average Gain + Average Loss)] × 100) currently hovers near 37, exiting oversold territory (below 30) after briefly touching 28 on June 10. While the RSI reading above 30 alleviates immediate oversold conditions, it remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting underlying weakness. Notably, price established a lower low ($40.08) compared to June 10 ($39.21) without a corresponding lower low in RSI – a potential positive divergence that warrants monitoring.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci principles to the primary uptrend from the June 2024 low ($27.14) to February 2025 high ($61.90): the 61.8% retracement at $40.42 aligns precisely with recent price action. Samsara’s June 12 close ($40.69) hovered slightly above this critical level, with the intraday low ($40.08) testing its integrity. Confluence exists here as this Fibonacci level overlaps with Bollinger Band support. Violation of $40.42 would target the 78.6% retracement at $34.58, while successful defense could catalyze relief toward the 50% retracement at $44.52.
Concluding Synthesis
Confluence of multiple technical signals strengthens the bearish near-term outlook. The breakdown below moving averages, confirmed by volume patterns and MACD, has led Samsara to critical support near the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($40.42) and Bollinger Band base. The simultaneous oversold readings in RSI and KDJ, combined with volatility contraction, create conditions for a potential tactical bounce. However, the burden of proof remains on bulls to reclaim $42.89 resistance decisively. Probabilistically, failure to hold $40.42 may accelerate selling toward the $39.21 swing low and potentially $34.58. Any recovery requires validation through volume-backed reversal patterns and indicator improvement.