Samsara Stock Extends Slide With 7.83% Three-Day Drop As Technicals Turn Bearish

Samsara (IOT) declined 3.83% to $36.94 on September 24, 2025, marking its third consecutive daily loss and accumulating a 7.83% decline over this period. This recent weakness forms the immediate context for our technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a bearish sequence: a shooting star pattern formed on September 19 ($40.08 high, closing near lows), followed by three consecutive red candles with declining closes. Key support emerges at $36.90 (September 24 low) and $35.84 (September 4 close). Resistance is evident near $38.41-$38.47 (September 23 close and high) and $40.08 (September 19 close). A close below $36.90 may signal extension of the downtrend.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (∼$39.60) has crossed below both the 100-day (∼$41.80) and 200-day (∼$44.20) averages, confirming a bearish trend structure. Current price ($36.94) trades below all three MAs, with the descending 50-day acting as dynamic resistance. This configuration indicates established medium-term bearish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD remains in negative territory with the signal line above the MACD line, suggesting persistent bearish momentum. The KDJ oscillator shows the %K line (28) below %D (34), approaching oversold territory. However, both indicators lack bullish divergence despite recent lows, implying ongoing selling pressure. A bullish crossover in either oscillator could signal short-term exhaustion.
Bollinger Bands
Price has breached the lower Bollinger Band (∼$37.50) during the current decline, coinciding with expanding band width – indicating elevated volatility. This penetration often precedes mean reversion, but sustained trading below the lower band could signal continuation. The midline (20-period SMA ∼$39.30) now acts as resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
The downtrend shows volume confirmation: September 23-24 saw above-average volume (4.4M and 3.7M shares) as prices fell, validating selling pressure. Notable bearish volume spikes occurred during the September 9 breakdown (-7.06% on 16.4M shares) and September 5 rally (+17.44% on 24.0M shares), indicating distribution. Current volume lacks capitulation signs, suggesting downtrend may not be exhausted.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (∼29) entered oversold territory, reflecting recent downward momentum. While this warns of potential short-term relief, RSI reached similar levels during the early July and early September selloffs without immediate reversal. Traders should note that oversold readings can persist during strong trends, particularly when supported by volume and moving average alignment.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $35.84 (September 4) and peak of $42.09 (September 5), key retracement levels are: 38.2% ($39.60), 50% ($38.96), and 61.8% ($38.32). Price has breached the 61.8% support, targeting the 78.6% level ($36.95) – precisely where current support ($36.90) converges. A break below $36.95 would open the path toward the $35.84 origin low.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Multiple indicators show confluence at $36.90-$37.00: Fibonacci 78.6% level, Bollinger lower band, and recent price low. The RSI and KDJ oversold readings align with this support but lack bullish divergence against price. Notably, while volume expanded during the decline, the most recent session's volume decreased despite continued selling – a potential early exhaustion signal. The moving average configuration and MACD remain uniformly bearish, contrasting with the short-term oversold oscillators. This divergence suggests any rebound may face resistance near the $38.50 area where the 50-day MA and Fibonacci 50% level converge.