Samsara Stock Drops 4.55% To $45.10 Amid Heavy Trading Volume

Samsara (IOT) concluded the most recent session at $45.10, reflecting a 4.55% decline amid heightened trading volume of 14.8 million shares. This technical analysis examines price action across multiple indicators without visual output, highlighting key patterns and confluences.
Candlestick Theory
The last session formed a long-legged doji with a deep intraday low of $41.60 and close near the high ($45.10), signaling intense selling pressure followed by partial recovery. This pattern indicates potential exhaustion of bearish momentum near the $41.60 support. Key resistance emerges at $48.40 (June 5 high), while $45.00 now acts as psychological resistance-turned-support. Failure to hold $41.60 may trigger further downside toward the March 2025 low near $34.00.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) resides near $46.50, above the current price, confirming short-term bearish pressure. More significantly, the stock has fallen below its 100-day MA (~$44.80) and 200-day MA (~$42.50), indicating deteriorating medium-term momentum. However, the golden cross (50-day MA above 200-day MA) remains intact, suggesting the primary uptrend since June 2024 is not conclusively broken.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows persistent negative momentum, with the signal line diverging below the MACD line. KDJ levels (K: 38, D: 42, J: 30) approach oversold territory, though not yet extreme. This alignment suggests continued bearish control, but the proximity to oversold conditions may limit near-term downside. A bullish reversal would require MACD crossing above its signal line alongside KDJ rising from oversold levels.
Bollinger Bands
Price recently breached the lower Bollinger Band ($44.80), typically signaling oversold conditions. This violation coincided with a volatility expansion (band width increase of 15% week-over-week). Historically, such breaks in Samsara have precipitated mean-reversion rallies, though sustained trade below the lower band could indicate accelerating downtrend momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent 4.55% decline occurred on the highest volume in 30 sessions (14.8 million shares), validating bearish conviction. However, the intraday recovery from $41.60 to $45.10 on similarly elevated volume suggests substantial buying interest at lower levels. This volume divergence cautions against assuming immediate continuation of the downtrend without confirmation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 42, hovering near neutral territory after dipping toward oversold (30) during the session. While this reflects diminished bullish momentum, the absence of deeply oversold readings suggests underlying selling pressure may not be fully exhausted. Historically, RSI values below 35 have triggered technical bounces in Samsara over the past year.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the major swing low of $28.07 (June 2024) and high of $61.90 (February 2025) shows the current price trading between key retracement zones. The $45.10 close sits near the 50% retracement ($44.99), while the intraday low of $41.60 approximates the 61.8% level ($40.99). This confluence of Fibonacci support with the candlestick reversal signal at $41.60 strengthens the technical significance of this zone.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Notable confluence exists at $41.50-42.00, where Fibonacci support, the 200-day MA, and Bollinger Band deviation align with the recent reversal candlestick. Divergences appear between volume dynamics (bearish confirmation) and momentum oscillators (approaching oversold). While MACD/RSI lack bullish signals, KDJ’s approach toward oversold territory alongside the Fibonacci/candlestick support cluster suggests the potential for a technical rebound, though the primary trend remains bearish below $45.00. Sustained trade below $41.60 would invalidate this support confluence and likely trigger extended downside toward the $38.00 region.