Samsara Stock Drops 4.05% As Bearish Technicals Signal Further Downside Risk

Samsara (IOT) closed at $38.65 in the latest session, declining 4.05%, following a pattern of volatile price action over the past year. The technical analysis below examines key indicators and their implications for future price direction.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show a bearish engulfing pattern forming after the June 24 peak at $40.35, with the June 25 candle closing near its low ($38.65). This suggests mounting selling pressure. Key support emerges at $37.80 (June 18 low), while resistance converges near $40.28–$40.35, aligning with the 50-day moving average. A break below $37.80 could accelerate declines toward $35.50, the March 2025 swing low.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA ($42.30) remains above the 100-day SMA ($41.80), but both hover above the current price, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. Critically, the 200-day SMA ($43.50) caps rallies as a major resistance level. The sustained trading below all three moving averages signals an entrenched downtrend, with a bearish crossover (50-day crossing below 100-day) potentially developing if losses extend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD maintains a bearish trajectory with the histogram in negative territory, corroborating downward momentum. KDJ registers oversold conditions (K: 25, D: 30, J: 15) after the recent sell-off, hinting at possible near-term consolidation. However, divergence is absent; both oscillators align in signaling bearish pressure. Recovery would require MACD crossing above its signal line alongside KDJ rising sustainably above 50.
Bollinger Bands
Bands have widened significantly during June’s decline, reflecting elevated volatility. The price presses against the lower band ($38.00), indicating oversold extremes, but failure to rebound suggests continued distribution. A contraction in bandwidth would likely precede any meaningful reversal. Immediate resistance stands at the 20-day middle band ($40.20).
Volume-Price Relationship
June 10 saw the highest volume (18.68M shares) during a 6.15% decline, confirming bearish conviction. Recent sessions show above-average volume on down days (e.g., June 25: 8.03M shares) versus weaker volume on rallies. This distribution pattern indicates sellers dominate. Sustained recovery would necessitate volume expansion accompanying upside moves.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 35 approaches oversold territory but has not reached extreme levels (<30). Notably, it formed bearish divergence in early June when prices made higher highs while RSI peaked lower. This divergence warned of weakening momentum prior to the current sell-off. While an oversold bounce may occur near RSI 30, the indicator alone does not yet signal a durable bottom.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels between the March 2025 peak ($58.83) and June 2025 low ($38.65), the 38.2% retracement ($45.80) rejected rallies in early June. The 23.6% level ($42.50) now acts as immediate resistance. A breakdown below the current low ($38.65) targets the 161.8% extension at $33.80. Bulls must reclaim the 23.6% Fib to invalidate the bearish structure.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence supports bearish sentiment: Price trades below all key moving averages, MACD shows no reversal signs, volume confirms selling pressure, and $40.28–$40.35 resistance aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the middle Bollinger Band. The primary divergence remains the KDJ oversold reading against prevailing momentum, suggesting potential for technical bounces but insufficient to override broader bearish alignments.