Samsara (IOT) Rallies 7.05% in Three Days on Bullish Candlestick Pattern, Hovers Near $39.67 Resistance

Samsara (IOT) has surged 3.86% in the most recent session, extending a three-day rally with a cumulative gain of 7.05%. This upward momentum suggests a short-term bullish bias, supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows in the candlestick pattern. Key support levels emerge around $34.92 and $33.625, while resistance is evident at $38.37 and $39.67. A bullish engulfing pattern on January 7, 2026, confirms renewed buying pressure, though a bearish divergence in volume during prior rallies (e.g., December 2025) raises caution about sustainability.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action exhibits a strong uptrend with a three-day bullish trend, forming a higher high above the December 2025 peak of $39.67. Key support levels at $34.92 (January 6) and $33.625 (January 5) align with prior consolidation zones, while resistance at $38.37 (December 22) and $39.67 (December 15) suggests potential profit-taking zones. A long white candle on January 7, 2026, with a close near the high, indicates strong conviction, though a prior bearish harami in late December highlights vulnerability if the trend reverses.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately $37.80) is above the 200-day MA ($36.50), signaling a positive medium-term trend. The current price of $36.31 sits below the 50-day MA, suggesting a potential pullback to test the 100-day MA ($37.00) as a critical support. A crossover of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA in early 2026 could reinforce bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $34.92 may trigger a retest of the 200-day MA.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the line crossing above the signal line, confirming strengthening momentum. However, the RSI (calculated at ~68) approaches overbought territory (70), indicating caution about a near-term correction. The KDJ (Stochastic) indicator shows the %K line at 85 and %D at 78, suggesting exhaustion in the rally. A bearish crossover in KDJ may precede a pullback, though the MACD’s bullish signal provides conflicting signals, highlighting a potential divergence.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded in recent weeks, with the price hovering near the upper band since early January. This suggests heightened volatility and strong upside momentum. A contraction in band width during late December 2025 preceded the breakout, reinforcing the current trend. However, a return to the lower band ($33.67) would signal a potential reversal, while continued expansion may indicate prolonged overbought conditions.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the three-day rally, peaking at 6.75 million shares on January 7, 2026, validating the price increase. However, volume during prior rallies (e.g., December 12–19, 2025) was inconsistent, raising questions about the sustainability of current buying pressure. A sharp decline in volume during a pullback would likely confirm the trend’s strength, while a surge in volume during a downturn could signal capitulation.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI, calculated using a 14-day average, stands at ~68, nearing overbought conditions. While this does not necessarily signal an immediate reversal, it suggests caution for short-term traders. A close above 70 would require a significant move to $38.50, while a drop below 50 (currently at $36.31) may indicate a correction. The RSI’s alignment with the MACD’s bullish signal provides confluence for continuation, but the KDJ divergence introduces uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the December 2025 low ($33.62) to the January 2026 high ($36.31) include 23.6% at $35.50, 38.2% at $35.20, and 50% at $34.97. A pullback to the 50% level would test critical support, with a break below $34.92 exposing the 61.8% retracement at $34.70. These levels align with prior support zones, increasing the probability of a bounce if the trend holds.

Confluence and Divergences

The bullish momentum from the MACD and Bollinger Bands aligns with the Fibonacci and moving average support, creating a strong case for continuation. However, the KDJ overbought condition and RSI proximity to 70 introduce a high probability of a near-term correction. Divergence exists between the RSI and KDJ, with the latter suggesting exhaustion despite the MACD’s strength. Traders should monitor volume during a pullback to confirm trend resilience.