Samsara Extends Slide With 2.33% Drop As Bearish Signals Mount

Samsara (IOT) declined 2.33% in the most recent session, extending its losing streak to two consecutive days with a cumulative decline of 3.42%. This downward movement occurred on above-average volume, signaling persistent selling pressure near key technical levels.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows Samsara formed a bearish continuation pattern after rejecting near $34.79 resistance on August 22. The last two sessions printed consecutive red candles with lower highs and lows, confirming near-term bearish momentum. Key support emerges at the August 21 swing low of $32.28, while resistance is firm at $34.57–$34.79. A decisive break below $33.44 (August 26 low) could accelerate selling toward the $32.50 psychological support.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($38.20) remains above the 100-day MA ($41.30) and 200-day MA ($44.80), confirming the primary downtrend. Price trades well below all three moving averages, with the 50-day MA acting as dynamic resistance. The sustained separation from these averages signals entrenched bearish momentum. Short-term rebounds are likely to face resistance near $34.50 (descending 20-day MA), while the 200-day MA’s downward slope reinforces longer-term weakness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows sustained negative territory below the signal line, with no bullish crossover in sight, confirming bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (with %K at 28 and %D at 35) approaches oversold territory but lacks a bullish crossover. This divergence suggests downward pressure persists despite nearing oversold conditions. A confirmed %K/%D crossover above 20 would be needed to signal potential reversal energy.
Bollinger Bands
Price hugs the lower Bollinger Band ($33.50), reflecting elevated selling pressure. Bandwidth contraction preceded the recent breakdown, suggesting volatility compression resolved to the downside. Repeated closes below the lower band indicate oversold conditions but also reflect persistent capitulation. A mean-reversion bounce toward the $35.20 middle band remains possible, but sustained lower-band proximity warns of extended downside risk.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns dominate, evidenced by higher volume on down days (August 7: -5.96% on 7.47M shares; August 26: -2.33% on 7.61M shares) versus muted volume during rebounds. The August 9 breakout rally (+15.52%) saw record volume, but subsequent failure to hold gains above $39 indicates absorption of demand. Current volume confirms bearish conviction near resistance, though oversold bounce potential may emerge if selling volume diminishes near $32.50 support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (34.7) approaches oversold territory but shows no bullish divergence. Its failure to breach 50 during recent rallies confirms weak momentum. While RSI < 30 could signal tactical oversold conditions, its current trajectory suggests further downside potential. Historically, meaningful reversals occurred only when RSI reached 25–28 (as seen in April and September 2024), implying room for additional weakness before stabilization.
Fibonacci Retracement
Measuring the downtrend from the June high ($48.41) to August low ($32.28), key retracement levels create confluence zones. The 38.2% level ($38.20) rejected recent rally attempts on August 7 and August 11, aligning with the 50-day MA. Current price struggles near the 23.6% retracement ($35.20), while the 61.8% level ($41.30) coincides with the 100-day MA. A breakdown below the June-August swing low ($32.28) projects toward $29.50 (127.2% extension).
Confluence and Divergence Notes
Bearish confluence appears strongest at $34.50–$34.79, where Bollinger Band resistance, the 23.6% Fibonacci level, and recent swing highs converge. Notable bullish divergences are absent, though oversold KDJ and RSI readings near $32.50 may support tactical rebounds. Primary risk remains downward resolution toward $30–$29.50, while sustained trade above $35.20 is needed to invalidate immediate bearish bias. Volume dynamics suggest institutional distribution continues, warranting caution despite short-term oversold signals.