Salesforce Plummets 2.95% Amid AI Pricing Strategy Uncertainty: Is This the Start of a Correction?

Summary
• Salesforce (CRM) trades at $254.48, down 2.95% from its previous close of $262.23
• CEO Marc Benioff’s admission of potential AI-related losses sparks investor caution
• Leveraged ETF CRMG (-5.93%) mirrors CRM’s bearish momentum

Today’s sharp selloff in Salesforce reflects a critical juncture in its AI monetization strategy. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $221.96 and a dynamic P/E of 32.43, the market is recalibrating its expectations for the CRM giant. The Agentic Enterprise License Agreement (AELA) announcement, while visionary, has triggered short-term profit skepticism. As the sector grapples with AI-driven margin pressures, CRM’s 4.3M turnover and 0.47% turnover rate highlight liquidity concerns amid volatile positioning.

AI Pricing Strategy Sparks Profitability Doubts
The 2.95% intraday drop stems directly from CEO Marc Benioff’s admission that Salesforce is willing to absorb losses on its AI agent platform to secure long-term customer relationships. The Agentic Enterprise License Agreement (AELA) model, which prioritizes seat-based flat-rate pricing over consumption-based metrics, has raised red flags about near-term profitability. With Milano’s ‘$5M incremental AELA’ example illustrating potential margin compression, investors are recalculating the balance between customer lock-in and revenue sustainability. This strategic pivot, while aligning with Forrester’s ‘monetization era’ warning, has triggered a risk-off reaction as the market weighs the trade-off between AI adoption momentum and short-term earnings dilution.

Application Software Sector Under Pressure as ServiceNow Plummets
The Application Software sector is experiencing broad-based weakness, with sector leader ServiceNow (NOW) plummeting 10.84% on the same day. While Salesforce’s 2.95% decline appears relatively contained compared to NOW’s collapse, the sector-wide selloff underscores investor anxiety over AI-driven margin pressures. The contrast highlights divergent market perceptions: Salesforce’s aggressive AI monetization strategy is being punished for near-term risks, while ServiceNow’s struggles suggest deeper structural challenges in enterprise software pricing models. This divergence creates a critical inflection point for CRM’s ability to differentiate its AI value proposition.

Navigating Volatility: ETF and Options Plays for CRM’s AI Repricing
• 200-day average: 258.37 (above) • RSI: 82.72 (overbought) • MACD: 5.23 (bullish) • Bollinger Bands: 213.16–270.62 (wide range)

CRM’s technical profile reveals a short-term bullish trend within a long-term consolidation pattern. The 254.36–255.81 200D support/resistance zone aligns with the current price, suggesting a potential bounce. The Leverage Shares 2X Long CRM Daily ETF (CRMG), down 5.93%, offers amplified exposure but carries significant decay risk given its 2x leverage. For options, two contracts stand out:

• CRM20251219C260
- Call Option
- Strike: $260
- Expiry: 2025-12-19
- IV: 29.59% (moderate)
- Leverage: 159.29% (high)
- Delta: 0.293 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.8209 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.03897 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 90,278 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $10.52 (max gain if price rebounds to $267.25)
- Why it works: High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a short-term rebound trade, though theta decay requires swift execution.

• CRM20251219C265
- Call Option
- Strike: $265
- Expiry: 2025-12-19
- IV: 29.99% (moderate)
- Leverage: 404.56% (extreme)
- Delta: 0.140 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.448 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.02491 (moderate responsiveness)
- Turnover: 59,292 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $25.75 (max gain if price rebounds to $277.25)
- Why it works: Extreme leverage amplifies potential returns if CRM breaks above $265, though delta suggests limited directional sensitivity. Aggressive bulls should consider CRM20251219C265 into a rebound above $265, while tactical traders may short-term play CRM20251219C260 for a 200D breakout.

Backtest Salesforce Stock Performance
The backtest of Salesforce (CRM) after an intraday plunge of at least -3% from 2022 to the present shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 53.15%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.94%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.30%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term following the event. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.64%, suggesting that while the stock may experience volatility, it has the potential for recovery and even exceed its pre-plunge levels.

Act Now: Position for AI Monetization Clarity or Sector Correction
The selloff reflects a pivotal moment in Salesforce’s AI monetization journey. While the 200D support at $254.36 offers a near-term floor, the sector’s 10.84% collapse in ServiceNow signals broader risks. Investors must weigh Benioff’s long-term vision against immediate margin pressures. For those with conviction in CRM’s AI agent platform, the CRM20251219C265 call offers explosive potential if the stock breaks above $265. However, the sector’s fragility—exemplified by ServiceNow’s freefall—demands caution. Watch for a $265 breakout or a breakdown below $253.08 to determine the next move. Act decisively: Position for AI monetization clarity or sector correction before the 2025-12-19 expiry.