Salesforce Has Been Left for Dead — Can Tonight’s Earnings Spark a 2026 Revival?

Salesforce reports after the close , and it’s fair to say expectations are low—and that might actually be the best setup the stock has had all year. Shares of CRM are lingering around the 230 level, having fallen nearly 30% year-to-date. It’s been one of the more high-profile laggards in large-cap tech, repeatedly featured on Tax-Loss-Harvesting lists as institutions dump losers into year-end. Investors don’t expect fireworks—they expect competence—but the real question is whether this is finally the quarter where the pieces snap together, particularly around Agentforce and Data Cloud monetization. Meanwhile, there were industry reports (The Information) that Microsoft reduced AI software sales quotas for its go-to-market teams. That’s not central to CRM’s narrative—but it does provide an undercurrent: tonight may be the first real benchmark for how enterprise AI-driven software demand is actually scaling.

Investors will focus on CRM’s expected $10.27–10.29B in revenue (+9% YoY) and around $2.85 EPS. The headline print matters, but guidance and CRPO growth matter more. The remaining performance obligation is a key leading indicator of forward recurring revenue, and anything showing momentum into Q4—and especially into FY27—would be taken as a sign that CRM is finally closing the execution gap that’s plagued the story for six quarters.

Page one of what investors are watching: whether Agentforce adoption is maturing from experiments and proofs-of-concept into real enterprise production deployments. This has been a source of disappointment—the AI narrative has been there, the customer list has been there, but actual revenue from AI agents has been small relative to the hype cycle. Even Stifel’s partner checks showed that deployments largely remain narrow-use-case implementations, with customers still working through data-hygiene and ecosystem preparation. For CRM, AI isn’t bottlenecked by product—it’s bottlenecked by enterprise data organization. If tonight’s commentary shows acceleration in conversions from pilot → scaled use case → enterprise deployment, that would be the first true positive inflection of the Agentforce thesis.

Second, the integration of Informatica will be something analysts probe aggressively. While the acquisition should strengthen CRM’s data pipelines and customer data orchestration—which are prerequisites for AI value creation—it also introduces noise into topline metrics and makes ex-Informatica organic growth more opaque. Bears will argue that CRM is using M&A to artificially goose revenue optics; bulls will argue it’s building the necessary plumbing for durable AI monetization. The market will settle that debate through guidance tone, not raw numbers.

Third is the Dreamfrce messaging. At the event, CRM guided investors toward a long-term framework: FY30 revenue >$60B and a return to double-digit organic revenue growth beginning in calendar 2026. The renewed push toward margin expansion, enterprise pricing flexibility, agentic bundling models, and subscription consumption-based pricing were all welcomed. But that remains theoretical until execution shows up in the financials. Tonight’s earnings is the first checkpoint since Dreamforce where the company must demonstrate that the optimism in San Francisco was not just ceremonial—but directional. Shares have been relatively flat since Dreamforce.

The setup around tax-loss harvesting is significant. Large funds who sold it throughout 2025 did so not because CRM is broken fundamentally, but because it was one of the easiest underperformers to rotate out of relative to winners like NVDA, AVGO, and META. If CRM prints a decent quarter with indications of FY27 acceleration, that could unlock a reflexive reversal: selling pressure dries up, sidelined buyers reappear, shorts scramble modestly, and suddenly $230 looks like a base rather than a ceiling. On the other hand, if results are merely “fine,” and guidance is cautiously neutral, the stock may continue drifting until January’s capital flows reset. CRM, like it or not, is now a behavioral trading instrument as much as an earnings-driven one.

Back to expectations: Evercore sees CRM setting up positively for CY26 as Agentforce production deployments pick up and Informatica strengthens its data platform foundation. Cantor’s partner surveys show three out of four channel partners hit their Q3 targets, with Q4 bookings trending strongly—suggesting stable demand, if not explosive. Bank of America anticipates Q3 in-line results, expecting rev/cRPO growth around 7.6%–9.2% constant currency, and—importantly—noting limited downside due to depressed sentiment. Meanwhile, BMO’s stance is philosophical: CRM isn’t about flipping market sentiment tonight—it’s about building the foundation for reaccelerating growth through 2026 and beyond. That requires patience, which is not always the stock market’s best trait.

One area that will draw attention is AI and Data Cloud ARR, which last quarter hit $1.2B and grew 120% YoY. If that continues—especially if CRM can claim accelerating adoption—that becomes the numerical glue between narrative and fundamentals. The company’s 94% recurring revenue model provides a strong base of durability. But investors will want more than durability—they want velocity.

There’s also the Benioff factor. He is one of the most effective vision-sellers in tech, but the stock now needs execution more than evangelism. Last quarter, he claimed, “I have never been more excited about anything in my entire career.” Tonight, investors will see whether that excitement is internal enthusiasm—or external reality.

Bottom line: expectations are modest, skepticism is priced in, sentiment is battered, tax-loss-selling pressure is fading, and guidance into FY27 will likely determine whether CRM finally escapes its laggard status. If tonight’s report signals the beginning of a true Agentforce monetization runway and validates Dreamforce’s long-term roadmap, $230 could become a springboard. If not… people may come back to this stock in February when the calendar tax clock is reset and memories shorten.

Either way, tonight is not just another CRM quarter—it’s a vote on whether 2026 is a turnaround year, or another wait-and-see.