Salesforce (CRM) Options Signal Bullish Bias at $260–$270, But $240 Put OI Warns of Downside Risks: Here’s How to Position for Earnings Volatility

• CRM’s price action shows a -0.21% dip to $253.90, trading in a long-term range but with short-term bearish momentum.
• Options market sentiment is skewed bullish: Call open interest (433,052) outpaces puts (266,117), with heavy call OI at $260–$275 strikes and puts at $240–$250.
• Earnings loom on December 3, with analysts projecting 18.3% YoY EPS growth and AI-driven revenue tailwinds.

The stock is caught in a tug-of-war between bullish options positioning and cautious technicals. Here’s how to navigate it.Bullish Calls at $260–$275 vs. Bearish Puts at $240: What’s the Play?

The options market is a goldmine of crowd psychology. Right now, CRM’s open interest tells a story: 2413 contracts at the $270 call (Friday expiry) and 2843 puts at $240 suggest a key battleground. Traders are betting on a potential $253.90-to-$270 rebound but hedging against a drop to $240.

Here’s what that means:

• Bullish signal: The $260–$275 call strikes have 4,820+ combined OI (Friday expiry), indicating significant conviction in a short-term pop. This aligns with CRM’s 30-day support at $245.67 and resistance at $246.22, suggesting a breakout attempt.
• Bearish risk: The $240 put OI (2843 contracts) acts as a floor. If the stock breaks below $250, that level could trigger a cascade of stop-losses and panic selling.

Block trading is quiet, so no whale moves to worry about—yet. But the $240 put OI is a red flag: don’t ignore it.

AI News and Earnings: Fuel for the Fire or a Wet Blanket?

Salesforce’s AI push is no longer a buzzword—it’s a business. Recent headlines highlight partnerships with Google Cloud, Agentforce updates, and a $8B Informatica acquisition to turbocharge data workflows. CEO Marc Benioff’s AGI vision and UBS’s stake increase add institutional credibility.

But here’s the catch: mixed signals. While AI monetization and pricing hikes are bullish, insider selling by Benioff and cautious Q3 guidance (below forecasts) have traders hedging. The options data reflects this duality: bullish calls for a post-earnings pop, but bearish puts to protect against a stumble.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Safety NetFor Options Traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy the $260 call (Friday expiry). With CRM at $253.90, this strike offers a 6% move to breakeven. If the stock holds above $250 (middle Bollinger Band), the $260 call could surge as volatility spikes pre-earnings.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy the $240 put (next Friday expiry). This 6% downside buffer costs less than a straight short but caps losses if the stock gaps down.

For Stock Traders:

• Entry at $250: If CRM holds above its 30-day support ($245.67), consider buying near $250. The 200-day MA at $270.13 is a distant ceiling, but the 30-day MA at $247.75 offers a near-term target.
• Exit at $266.59: The upper Bollinger Band is a dynamic resistance. If the stock breaks through, aim for a 6% gain.

Why This Works: The $250–$260 range is a sweet spot. It balances the 30-day support, RSI (64.25, not overbought), and the $260 call’s liquidity. The $240 put acts as insurance against a surprise earnings miss or broader market selloff.Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Earnings Uncertainty

CRM’s story is a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” The options market is pricing in a $260–$275 pop, but earnings could swing either way. If the report beats estimates (as Q2 did), the $270 call could be a winner. But a miss might trigger a $240–$235 freefall.

Your edge? Position yourself with both a bullish call and a bearish put. That way, you’re ready for either outcome. And remember: the 30-day support at $245.67 is a psychological level. If it holds, the stock could rebound—but if it breaks, the 200-day MA at $241.92 is next in line.

Final Take: CRM is a high-conviction trade for AI believers but a high-risk play for the impatient. The options data and news flow suggest a volatile December, so stay nimble. Whether you go long with the $260 call or short with the $240 put, the key is to act before the December 3 earnings report turns the market’s mood from cautious to euphoric—or the other way around.