Salesforce (CRM) Options Signal Aggressive Bullish Bets at $250–$260 Amid Bearish Technicals: A Contrarian Play?

• Salesforce (CRM) trades at $242.14, up 0.49% intraday, but remains below its 30D, 100D, and 200D moving averages.
• Options data shows a 0.61 put/call open interest ratio, with heavy call OI at $250–$270 strikes and put OI at $235–$240.
• RSI at 38.8 (oversold) and bearish MACD (-1.6) suggest potential for a rebound, but Bollinger Bands indicate a 10% gap to the upper band.

The Salesforce options market is sending a mixed but actionable signal: while technicals point to a bearish near-term trend, open interest distribution hints at a potential short-term rebound. With $6 billion in UK investments and AI-driven growth news fueling optimism, traders must weigh bullish options positioning against a structurally weak price profile.

Bullish Call Accumulation vs. Bearish Technicals: Decoding the Options Imbalance

The options chain reveals a striking concentration of open interest in out-of-the-money (OTM) calls at the $250–$260 range, with 2,602 contracts at the $250 strike (Friday expiration) and 1,134 at $267.50 (next Friday). This suggests institutional positioning for a $242.14-to-$250+ move, likely tied to the recent $6 billion UK investment announcement and AI partnership news. However, the put/call open interest ratio of 0.61 (calls dominate) indicates a structural bearish bias, with 2,014 puts at the $235 strike (Friday) and 1,457 at $230 (next Friday) acting as key downside hedges.

The lack of block trades adds nuance—no large institutional bets are skewing the data—but the heavy call OI at $250+ implies a "soft ceiling" scenario. If CRM breaks above its 30D support/resistance range (242.14–242.60), the $250 strike could act as a catalyst for a 3.6% rebound. Conversely, failure to hold above $240.35 (intraday low) risks a test of the 200D MA at $282.73, though this seems unlikely given the current momentum.

News-Driven Optimism vs. Technical Constraints: A Strategic Dilemma

Salesforce’s recent news flow is undeniably bullish. The $6 billion UK investment, AI partnership with CrowdStrike, and Regrello acquisition all signal aggressive expansion and innovation. Analysts have raised price targets, and 61% of CFOs now view Salesforce’s AI agents as critical to competitiveness. These developments should theoretically drive demand for the stock, yet the technical picture remains bearish.

The disconnect may stem from market skepticism about execution risks. While the news highlights strategic momentum, the RSI at 38.8 (oversold) and MACD divergence suggest short-term exhaustion. Investors might be hedging their optimism by buying calls at $250–$260 while using puts at $235–$240 to protect against a potential pullback. This duality creates a "risk-on/risk-off" dynamic where the stock could see choppy action until the UK investment’s impact materializes.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls at $250, Puts at $235, and Strategic Entries

For options traders, the most compelling setup involves the $250 call (Friday expiration) and $235 put (Friday expiration). Here’s why:

• Bullish Play: Buy the $250 call if CRM closes above $242.60 (30D resistance). With 2,602 contracts in open interest, this strike represents a liquidity sweet spot. A break above $242.60 could trigger a 3.6% move to $250, with potential for further gains if the UK investment news gains traction.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy the $235 put if CRM dips below $240.35 (intraday low). The 2,014 open interest at this strike suggests a high probability of liquidity, and a drop to $235 would align with the 200D MA support zone.

For stock traders, consider the following:

• Entry at $242.14: Buy CRM if it holds above $240.35. Target $247.36 (middle Bollinger Band) as a first objective, with a stop-loss at $237.50.
• Short Setup: If CRM breaks below $240.35, consider a short at $237.50 with a target at $235 (put-heavy zone) and a stop above $242.60.

Volatility on the Horizon: Navigating the Bull-Bear Crossroads

The coming weeks will test Salesforce’s ability to convert bullish fundamentals into technical momentum. With the 200D MA acting as a psychological barrier and the options market pricing in a $250+ move, the stock is at a critical inflection point. Traders should monitor the $242.60–$244.69 resistance range (30D/200D overlap) as a key battleground. A sustained break above this zone could validate the call-heavy positioning, while a breakdown would force a reevaluation of the bearish trend. In this high-uncertainty environment, disciplined risk management and tight stop-losses will be paramount.