Salesforce & Adobe: The Key to Vanguard Tech ETF's All-Time High?

The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) has been on a roll, with a mere 0.1% expense ratio and a minimum investment of just $1. Its recent rally has been driven by the semiconductor industry, with Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft commanding a significant 44.6% of the ETF's holdings. But could software giants Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE) help propel VGT to new heights? Let's explore this possibility.

Salesforce and Adobe have been making waves in the tech sector, with AI developments at the forefront of their strategies. Salesforce's Agentforce suite of AI agents and Adobe's generative AI text-to-image tool Firefly have garnered attention. Meanwhile, Microsoft has invested heavily in AI solutions, embedding AI assistants called Copilots in various applications.

However, despite these promising developments, AI spending hasn't yet translated into blistering growth for Salesforce and Adobe. Adobe's margins have stalled, and Salesforce's top-line growth has been modest. The challenge for software companies is to monetize AI without disrupting their existing business models. This uncertainty is one reason why semiconductor companies, like Nvidia, have been leading the tech sector.

In the Vanguard Tech ETF, Salesforce accounts for 1.8% and Adobe for 1.4% of the total assets. Even with a significant increase in their market capitalization, their combined weight in the ETF would reach around 7.5%. While this could contribute to the ETF's overall performance, it is unlikely to be the sole driver of VGT reaching an all-time high.

Other factors, such as the semiconductor industry's influence and the ETF's exposure to various technology sub-sectors, are more likely to contribute to its overall performance. The ETF's allocation to sectors like Application and Systems Software, Technology Hardware, and others indicates a diversified portfolio, which can help mitigate risks associated with individual stocks.



In conclusion, while Salesforce and Adobe's AI developments and recent performance are encouraging, they are unlikely to single-handedly drive the Vanguard Tech ETF to an all-time high. The ETF's diversification and the broader tech sector trends, including the semiconductor industry's influence, are more likely to contribute to its overall performance. Investors should consider these factors when evaluating the ETF's potential for growth.