Safety Shot Surges 24% – Volatility and Technicals Ignite a Wild Trading Session

• Safety Shot (SHOT) spikes 24% intraday to $0.5086, hitting a session high of $0.5595 and low of $0.4115.
• Upgraded to 'Buy Candidate' after breaking above critical support at $0.405 and showing rising volume.
• Sector faces cybersecurity headwinds as peers grapple with data breaches and supply chain attacks.
• Technicals show short-term bullish momentum despite a long-term bearish trend.

The stock’s explosive rally on July 14th defies its 52-week low, fueled by upgraded buy signals and a volatile trading range. Analysts highlight the stock’s proximity to support zones and sector-specific risks as key catalysts.

Buy Signal Upgrade and Technical Breakouts Drive the Surge
Safety Shot’s 24% surge stems from an upgraded 'Buy Candidate' rating, citing positive short- and long-term moving average crossovers. The stock broke above the $0.405 support level, a key accumulation zone, while volume surged 3 million shares from the prior day. Analysts note the short-term bullish trend is countering a broader falling pattern, with resistance at $0.433 and $0.456. The pivot top from July 7th’s 12.5% decline added urgency to the bounce, as traders chased momentum ahead of Monday’s opening. Positive volume alignment with price gains reinforced the move’s credibility.

Security Sector Faces Cyber Challenges as Safety Shot Shines
The Security and Safety Products sector remains under pressure as peers like Honeywell (HON) +0.55% grapple with cybersecurity breaches and supply chain attacks. While Safety Shot’s surge contrasts with sector headwinds, its focus on physical safety solutions—evident in recent news about pellet gun incidents—differentiates it from purely tech-driven cybersecurity firms. The sector’s broader weakness highlights Safety Shot’s niche advantage, but elevated volatility in the sector underscores the need for caution.

Target the Bullish Momentum with BAI ETF and High-Leverage Options
BAI (iShares A.I. Innovation ETF) +0.26% aligns with Safety Shot’s security tech angle. Technicals:
• RSI: 60.45 (neutral, not overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price ($0.5086) near upper band ($0.4714) – a bullish signal.
• 30-day MA: $0.3145 (far below), 100-day MA: $0.4138 (current support)

Aggressive traders should target $0.405 support and $0.433 resistance. For options:
1. SHOT20250718C0.5 (July 18 Call, $0.5 Strike):
• Delta: 0.61 | Theta: -0.011 | Gamma: 1.58 | Leverage: 5.10%
• High gamma and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario. Payoff at $0.53: max gain $0.03.
2. SHOT20250718P0.5 (July 18 Put, $0.5 Strike):
• Delta: -0.38 | Theta: -0.008 | Gamma: 1.42 | Leverage: 5.10%
• Captures downside if $0.405 breaks. Payoff at $0.40: max gain $0.10.

Hold for 1-2 days as theta decay accelerates near expiration. Avoid the November contracts due to low turnover.

Backtest Safety Shot Stock Performance
The backtest of SHOT's performance after a 24% intraday increase shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 41.88%, the 10-day win rate drops to 36.65% and the 30-day win rate is 37.70%. The average returns over these periods are negative, with a -0.18% return over 3 days, a -0.88% return over 10 days, and a 0.44% return over 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest was 1.36%, which occurred on day 27, indicating that while there is potential for gains, the strategy also carries risk.

Ride the Rally or Prepare for a Pullback – Here’s What to Watch
Safety Shot’s surge remains vulnerable to its long-term bearish trend and high volatility (17.78% daily swings). Traders should monitor $0.405 support and $0.433 resistance while tracking sector news. The upgraded buy signal and positive volume trends argue for a bullish bias, but a break below $0.386 triggers a sell signal. Meanwhile, Honeywell’s muted 0.55% gain underscores sector challenges – focus on technical levels and leverage options for directional bets. Action: Go long via the July 18 Call if $0.433 holds.