Safety Shot Soared 28.1%—Could This Financing Fuel a Sustainable Rebound?

Summary
• Safety Shot’s $16.3 million financing via 22.99M shares and warrants priced at $0.461/share drives intraday volatility.
• Stock surges from $0.73 to $1.13, a 28.09% rally, amid merger with Yerbaé.
• CEO Jarrett Boon calls the raise a "critical step" for operations and integration.

Safety Shot’s stock is in a tailspin, surging 28.09% to $0.9461 as of 19:16 ET. The company’s $16.3 million capital raise—via a registered direct offering and concurrent warrant issuance—has ignited a dramatic intraday rebound from a 52-week low of $0.23 to a high of $1.13. This volatile move underscores the market’s mixed reaction to the merger with Yerbaé and the influx of institutional capital.

Strategic Financing Catalyzes Volatility
The 28% intraday surge in Safety Shot’s stock is directly tied to its $16.3 million registered direct offering and private placement of warrants. The offering, priced at $0.461/share, includes 22.99 million shares and 45.99 million warrants exercisable at $0.461. CEO Jarrett Boon emphasized the capital will strengthen the balance sheet post-merger with Yerbaé, funding integration and operational expansion. However, the stock’s sharp rebound contrasts with its 52-week low of $0.23 and a dynamic PE of -4.87, suggesting short-term optimism amid long-term uncertainty.

Bullish Momentum and Leveraged ETFs Signal Aggressive Entry
• MACD: 0.0723 (above signal line 0.0388), RSI: 68.86 (overbought), 200D MA: $0.6168 (above current price $0.9461), Bollinger Bands: $0.195–$0.660 (price near upper band).

The stock’s short-term bullish trend and overbought RSI suggest a volatile continuation. Key levels include the 30D support at $0.301–$0.311 and the 200D resistance at $0.472–$0.493. Leveraged ETFs like Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X (SPXL) and ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO), both up 2.05% and 2.04% respectively, amplify market exposure. However, the -4.87 dynamic PE and 18.34% turnover rate highlight structural risks.
Top Options Contracts:
• SHOT20250815P1 (Put): $1 strike, 235.31% IV, -0.4367 delta, 0.7134 gamma, $15,065 turnover. High IV and gamma suggest volatility-driven potential. A 5% upside to $0.9934 yields a payoff of $0.0334 per share. Aggressive short-term bears may target this expiry.
• SHOT20251121C1 (Call): $1 strike, 168.04% IV, 0.6588 delta, 0.4127 gamma, $22,708 turnover. Strong liquidity and moderate delta align with a bullish breakout. A 5% upside to $0.9934 generates a $0.0334 payoff. Aggressive bulls should consider this for mid-term gains.
Hook: If $1.00 breaks, SHOT20250815P1 offers short-side potential; SHOT20251121C1 is a top play for a sustained rebound.

Backtest Safety Shot Stock Performance
The backtest of SHOT's performance after an intraday surge of 28% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 43.88%, the 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 42.86%, and the 30-day win rate is the lowest at 38.78%. This indicates that SHOT tends to perform well in the short term but faces challenges in maintaining gains over longer periods.

Breakout or Bluff? Watch $1.00 and Sector Leader Coca-Cola’s Lead
Safety Shot’s 28% intraday surge hinges on its ability to sustain momentum above $1.00 and convert the $16.3 million raise into operational traction. While the 52-week high of $1.77 remains a distant target, the stock’s technicals and options activity signal a high-risk, high-reward profile. Investors should monitor the 200D MA at $0.617 and Coca-Cola’s (-0.998% intraday) performance as sector barometers. For now, aggressive buyers may target the $1.00 level, while leveraged ETFs like SPXL and UPRO offer amplified exposure to a broader market rebound.