Safer Growth Play: SoFi Technologies vs. Affirm

SoFi's recent performance reveals a company executing on multiple fronts. The firm posted $962 million in net revenue during Q3 2025, a 38% year-over-year increase, fueled by 35% growth in members to 12.6 million and a 36% rise in products to 18.6 million according to Q3 2025 results. Fee-based revenue doubled to $409 million, while loan originations jumped 57% to $9.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA surged 49% to $277 million, underscoring disciplined cost management amid expansion. In contrast, Affirm's 35.4% GMV growth in Q4 2024 according to CrossRiver analysis-though notable-lacks transparency around credit metrics. The company reported 113% GMV growth in its card program, but no charge-off rates or loss reserves were disclosed, creating uncertainty for risk assessment.

Regulatory pressures weigh on both firms. The 2024 fintech crackdown introduced stricter vendor risk standards and advertising rules, potentially raising compliance costs. Affirm's reliance on partnerships with banks-now under heightened scrutiny-could face operational delays according to regulatory analysis. SoFi, meanwhile, benefits from clearer disclosures but remains exposed to evolving rules around its crypto initiatives and lending practices.

For investors, the core question is whether SoFi's financial discipline can offset regulatory friction, while Affirm's opacity leaves less room to gauge downside risks. The divergence in transparency, paired with tightening oversight, demands careful evaluation of each firm's risk-adjusted trajectory.

Growth Mechanics & Profitability Drivers

SoFi Technologies reported a 38% year-over-year increase in net revenue to $962 million in Q3 2025. This growth was fueled by a 35% rise in members to 12.6 million. A 36% jump in products to 18.6 million also contributed.

Loan originations surged 57% to $9.9 billion. This drove fee-based revenue to $409 million, up 50% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 49% to $277 million.

However, Affirm Holdings has not disclosed comparable cash flow metrics for the same period according to Yahoo Finance data. This lack of transparency limits direct comparison of profitability and cash generation.

The broader consumer credit market is growing more slowly, with the Federal Reserve reporting a 2.2% annual increase in consumer credit in October 2024. This slowdown, especially in nonrevolving credit (up 1.2%), could pressure margins for lenders as competition intensifies.

SoFi's growth momentum is strong, but the decelerating market environment raises concerns about the sustainability of high-margin lending. Investors should watch how quickly the company can scale its product mix and maintain credit quality as market conditions evolve.

Credit Quality & Regulatory Guardrails

SoFi's Q3 2025 results showed credit quality strengthening, with personal loan charge-offs hitting a two-year low according to Q3 2025 results. This improvement reflects broader sector trends, as lenders like Oportun and Enova also reported better metrics amid rate cuts and expanded secured lending options according to CrossRiver analysis. Meanwhile, Affirm's delinquency trends remain undisclosed, creating a transparency gap in its risk reporting.

Regulatory changes heighten scrutiny on bank-fintech partnerships, with federal agencies tightening rules on third-party risk management. These updates-covering advertising disclosures, vendor oversight, and anti-fraud compliance-could disproportionately impact Affirm's model, which relies on external lenders for capital. SoFi's balance sheet approach may face fewer disruptions, though compliance costs will rise for both firms.

While SoFi's visible credit metrics suggest operational discipline, Affirm's lack of delinquency data leaves investors without a clear view of its portfolio health. The regulatory shift toward stricter partnership oversight adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly for fintechs whose growth depends on scalable but fragile bank alliances. Investors should monitor how quickly these rules translate into concrete enforcement actions.

Valuation & Risk-Adjusted Outlook

SoFi's latest earnings reveal impressive revenue momentum, with fee-based income surging 50% year-over-year to $409 million. This growth is directly tied to robust loan originations ($9.9 billion, +57% YoY) and expanding user engagement, as its member base grew 35% to 12.6 million. Such concrete metrics provide strong evidence for near-term earnings visibility and operational scalability. The company's raised 2025 guidance further reinforces this trajectory, showing management's confidence in sustaining growth across crypto and AI initiatives.

However, this clarity sharply contrasts with Affirm's reporting approach. While SoFi discloses granular financial drivers, Affirm's latest results offer no cash flow multiples or credit loss ratios-details critical for valuation analysis. Regulatory filings and third-party data sources like Yahoo Finance confirm these metrics remain undisclosed, creating significant uncertainty about Affirm's cash generation capacity and risk profile.

The dominant risk factor for both companies is escalating regulatory scrutiny. Recent federal guidelines on bank-fintech partnerships now demand stricter vendor risk management and advertising transparency. These rules, particularly FDIC's revised deposit insurance disclosures, could materially increase compliance costs and operational complexity. For fintechs like Affirm and SoFi, this means higher overhead and potential delays in credit risk management implementation.

Upcoming catalysts include SoFi's Q4 2025 guidance details and Affirm's next earnings report. Until these provide clearer cash flow metrics or regulatory adaptations, investors must weigh SoFi's visible growth against Affirm's informational gaps within a tightening compliance environment. The next 3-6 months will be critical for assessing how each company navigates these dual pressures of scaling revenue and regulatory demands.