SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) Market Overview: 2025-09-19 12:00 ET to 2025-09-20 12:00 ET

• Price declined from 0.476 to 0.4647 amid bearish momentum and expanding volatility.
• High volume seen during 1700–1800 ET selloff, confirming bearish bias.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but price remains below key support.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion and price near lower band.
• Fibonacci levels indicate 0.4655 and 0.461 as critical for near-term direction.

The SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) pair opened at $0.4738 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.476, and closed at $0.4647 as of 2025-09-20 12:00 ET. The pair traded as low as $0.4613 and recorded a total volume of 669,520.0 tokens, with a notional turnover of approximately $303,256.60 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed a clear bearish bias, especially during the 1700–1800 ET window, where a sharp decline from $0.4734 to $0.4684 was accompanied by strong volume. A significant bearish engulfing pattern occurred during this period. The 20-period moving average (20 SMA) on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50 SMA, reinforcing the bearish signal. Daily chart support levels appear to be forming around the 0.4613–0.4655 range, with resistance at 0.468–0.470.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 SMA has crossed below the 50 SMA, indicating a bearish crossover. The 50 SMA is currently at approximately 0.4693, with the 20 SMA at 0.4685. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA is around 0.4685, the 100 SMA is at 0.4698, and the 200 SMA is at 0.472. Price is trading slightly below the 50 SMA, suggesting that bearish momentum may continue unless buyers step in.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the 1700–1800 ET selloff, with the histogram showing bearish divergence. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory, currently at 24, indicating potential for a short-term rebound. However, given the strong bearish setup, a reversal may not be immediate. A RSI recovery above 30 could hint at short-term buying interest.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded during the selloff, with the lower band settling around 0.465. Price has spent much of the session near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions and heightened volatility. If the pair breaks below the lower band, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend toward 0.4600, with the upper band at 0.474 acting as near-term resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 1700–1800 ET selloff, with a candle recording 175,083 tokens traded and a large price drop from 0.4734 to 0.472. Notional turnover followed suit, confirming the bearish momentum. However, a divergence appears in the later hours where volume remains relatively low despite price continuing to fall, potentially indicating weakening bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent swing high at 0.476 and swing low at 0.4613, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 0.4711, the 38.2% at 0.4690, the 50% at 0.4686, and the 61.8% at 0.4663. Price is currently near the 61.8% level, which may act as a short-term support. A break below this could target 0.4655 as the next level of interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a backtest strategy, one could consider a breakout system that enters long when price closes above the upper Bollinger Band with increasing volume and exits when the RSI exceeds 70. Conversely, short entries could be triggered when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band and the RSI falls below 30, with exits when the RSI rises above 40. This approach leverages the volatility and momentum signals observed in the data to capture directional moves. The current setup suggests that the strategy would have triggered a short signal during the 1700–1800 ET window, aligning with the observed selloff and bearish confirmation.