SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-14

• Price drifted lower amid subdued momentum and weak volume.
• Key support at 0.4832 tested multiple times during overnight hours.
• Volatility tightened in morning hours, with bearish dominance continuing.
• No strong reversal patterns emerged, suggesting continued bear pressure.
• Turnover dropped by 60% from early morning highs, indicating low conviction.

Market Overview

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at 0.4882 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET, reached an intraday high of 0.4921, a low of 0.4781, and closed at 0.4832 as of 2025-09-14 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 229,769.00, and notional turnover was 110,786.70 USD. The pair appears to have consolidated in a bearish bias, with limited upward momentum despite a few attempts to rally near the 0.4890 level.

Structure & Formations

Price remained in a descending channel for most of the 24-hour period, with key resistance at 0.4885–0.4900 and support at 0.4830–0.4835. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.4887 early morning, confirming a sell-off. Doji formed near 0.4885, 0.4870, and 0.4835, signaling indecision. Price action suggests buyers are hesitant to re-enter above 0.4850.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA remained in a bearish crossover with prices below both, indicating short-term bear pressure. On a broader scale, the 50/100/200-day EMA lines are not readily available from this dataset, but it appears SFPUSDT continues to trade beneath its 50-day moving average, reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout the 24-hour period with no signs of bullish divergence. The RSI fluctuated between 30–50, indicating oversold conditions for short periods but no strong momentum reversal. This suggests weak conviction in either direction, with price likely to remain in a consolidation phase unless a clear breakout occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened significantly during the 4–7 AM ET hours, indicating reduced volatility and potential for a breakout. Price spent much of the day near the lower band, particularly between 0.4830 and 0.4840, reinforcing a bearish consolidation pattern. A breakout above the upper band would require a surge in volume and momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning (00:15 ET) with a massive 52,294 units traded, but failed to push price above 0.4885. Turnover was high during this period but declined sharply after 04:00 ET, with no significant price movement. This divergence suggests weak follow-through in buying pressure, and the pair appears to be in a period of distribution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 0.4882–0.4921 rally, the 38.2% level sits around 0.4897, while the 61.8% level is at 0.4883. These levels failed to hold during the afternoon sell-off, suggesting that further retracement toward 0.4830–0.4840 is likely. A break below 0.4825 could trigger more aggressive bearish moves.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around a price-volume divergence filter, where short positions are triggered when price forms lower highs, but volume fails to confirm bearish strength. Given the current structure, a sell entry could be considered near 0.4832–0.4835, with a stop just above 0.4850 and a target at 0.4800–0.4785. This aligns with the current bearish channel and Fibonacci projections, with RSI hovering near oversold levels as potential confirmation of further downside.