SafePal/Tether Market Overview: Bullish Breakout Amid Rising Volatility

• SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) traded in a bullish range, closing near its 24-hour high amid rising volatility.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to bullish after 18:00 ET, with price surging above a key resistance at 0.4600.
• High volume confirmed the breakout above 0.4600 and reinforced the bullish bias into the close.
• RSI crossed above 50, suggesting renewed buying pressure, while Bollinger Bands expanded, signaling higher volatility.

The pair opened at 0.4529 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 0.4695 before closing at 0.4662 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 929,858.0 with a notional turnover of $422,245.71, reflecting increased participation as price moved higher. The key breakout above 0.4600 and continued strength into the close suggest a shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price tested and decisively broke above a prior resistance at 0.4600 with a bullish engulfing pattern observed between 19:30 and 20:00 ET. A series of higher lows and higher highs from 19:30 ET onward formed a clear ascending channel. A doji at 0.4640 around 01:30 ET indicated a brief pause in momentum but did not reverse the overall bullish trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are aligned lower, with price trading well above both, indicating a bullish deviation. On a daily basis, the 50- and 100-period MAs remain in a flat configuration, but the 200-day MA sits well below current levels, reinforcing a short-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a positive crossover and growing histogram height following the 0.4600 breakout, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI rose above 50 and moved into overbought territory in the latter half of the session, suggesting short-term exhaustion could emerge, but the sustained buying pressure suggests a continuation of the move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a simple breakout strategy on the 15-minute chart—longing on a close above the 20-period moving average and exiting on a close below the 50-period—yields a profitable sequence during the 18:00–22:00 ET window. The breakout at 0.4600 with confirmation by volume and price action aligns with this model, making it a viable hypothesis for short-term bullish plays. However, overbought RSI levels indicate caution for immediate entries, suggesting the strategy might work best with a trailing stop or after a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly following the 0.4600 breakout, with price remaining above the upper band for a brief period before consolidating. This expansion reflects heightened volatility. The closing price of 0.4662 sits near the middle band, suggesting a potential pause but not a reversal. A consolidation period within the bands could lead to a new breakout or a pullback to test the lower band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after the 0.4600 level was broken, particularly in the 18:00–20:00 ET window, confirming the breakout. The largest single candle in the session occurred at 19:30 ET with 132,307.0 volume and a high of 0.4606, indicating strong institutional or algorithmic participation. The correlation between volume and price movement validates the strength of the move higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing low at 0.4540 and high at 0.4695, key levels include 0.4633 (38.2%) and 0.4609 (61.8%). The current price of 0.4662 is approaching the 61.8% level and could face resistance or consolidate. On a daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the recent low at 0.4500 and high at 0.4695 suggest the 0.4637 (61.8%) level as a potential near-term target.

The next 24 hours could see SFPUSDT test the 0.4680–0.4695 range, with a risk of a pullback to 0.4630–0.4640 if RSI overbought levels trigger profit-taking. Investors should monitor volume patterns and Bollinger Band contractions for signs of a potential reversal or consolidation. A sustained close above 0.4670 would signal further bullish momentum, but volatility remains a key factor to watch.