SafePal/Tether Market Overview

• Price rallied from 0.5231 to 0.5611 amid strong volume surges.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 0.5300 on the 15-minute chart.
• RSI reached overbought levels, suggesting potential near-term exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the peak rally, indicating heightened volatility.
• Turnover spiked significantly during the 08:30–09:30 ET window as price surged past 0.55.

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at 0.525 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.5397 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. The pair traded between 0.5181 and 0.5611 over 24 hours, with a total volume of 3,696,997 and a turnover of 1,929,594.

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart acted as dynamic support during the consolidation phase from 0.5231 to 0.5282 before the sharp breakout above 0.5330. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around the 0.5300 level, aligning with a minor psychological barrier and confirming a shift in sentiment. The price closed above both key moving averages, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend. A bearish divergence in RSI appeared during the late consolidation phase, suggesting a temporary pause in buying momentum.

Bollinger Bands widened during the morning rally, with price peaking near the upper band at 0.5611, indicating heightened volatility. This was followed by a retracement toward the middle band, which acted as a temporary support. Volatility has since normalized but remains elevated compared to the previous week. The 20-period standard deviation stands at 0.017, which is above the 30-day average of 0.012, reflecting increased market sensitivity.

Fibonacci retracements from the recent 0.5181–0.5611 swing indicate key levels at 0.536 (38.2%), 0.542 (50%), and 0.551 (61.8%). The price found support at 0.5300–0.5330 and has now stalled near the 0.542 level. A break above this could target 0.551, but bearish action below 0.536 may bring traders back to test the 0.526–0.530 support cluster.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying bullish engulfing patterns near psychological levels, particularly when aligned with key moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. Based on today’s action, the 0.5300 engulfing pattern coincided with the 20-period moving average and a 61.8% retracement level, offering a high-probability setup. A long entry near the close of that candle with a stop below the low of 0.5296 and a target at 0.542–0.547 could have captured much of the subsequent rally. This pattern appears to be more effective during periods of expanding volatility and rising volume, as seen around 08:30–09:30 ET.