Sable Offshore (SOC) Soars 20.4167% as Trump Policy Shift Revives Offshore Drilling Hopes

Sable Offshore (SOC) surged 20.4167% in pre-market trading on Nov. 12, 2025, driven by reports of a potential policy shift under the Trump administration. A Washington Post report highlighted plans to resume offshore oil drilling along California’s coast for the first time in decades, including six proposed lease sales between 2027-2030 in federal waters. The draft proposal aligns with broader energy expansion goals outlined in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which already includes 30 Gulf of Mexico and six Alaskan lease auctions over the next 15-20 years.

Roth Capital analyst Leo Mariani noted the policy could directly benefit Sable’s Santa Ynez project in federal waters, emphasizing federal funding remains a viable path for the company. However, the timeline for implementation remains uncertain, with final approval likely at least a year away and production delays expected due to regulatory and logistical hurdles. The market’s sharp reaction reflects speculative positioning ahead of potential regulatory clarity, though long-term execution risks remain tied to environmental opposition and project timelines.

The Santa Ynez project, a key asset for Sable, has faced prolonged delays due to permitting challenges. The proposed drilling plan could accelerate federal support for the project, though developers must still navigate environmental assessments and public consultations. Analysts caution that while the policy shift offers near-term optimism, the company’s operational risks—including high capital intensity and regulatory volatility—remain significant headwinds for sustained growth.

Backtest assumptions suggest a momentum-driven strategy could capitalize on the pre-market surge, with a focus on short-term volatility. A hypothetical long position entering at the Nov. 12 open, targeting a 15% price target within three weeks, aligns with historical patterns of speculative plays on policy-driven catalysts. Position sizing would emphasize risk management, given the stock’s high beta and exposure to regulatory uncertainty. Exit triggers include a 10% pullback or confirmation of regulatory delays in subsequent filings.