Sable Offshore Plunges 12.9% Amid Volatile Session – What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Sable Offshore (SOC) trades at $7.95, down 12.9% from its $9.13 previous close
• Intraday range spans $6.54 (low) to $9.45 (high), signaling extreme volatility
• Turnover surges to 7.55 million shares, with a 6.18% turnover rate

Today’s session has seen Sable Offshore endure one of its most volatile intraday moves in recent history. The stock opened near its 52-week high of $9.14 but collapsed to a 52-week low of $6.54, erasing nearly $2.6 billion in market value. With no company-specific news to anchor the move, traders are scrambling to decode the technical and market dynamics behind this sharp reversal.

Bearish Technicals and Liquidity Pressure Drive Sharp Decline
SOC’s collapse is rooted in a confluence of bearish technical signals and liquidity exhaustion. The stock’s price has pierced below its 30-day ($9.51) and 100-day ($9.41) moving averages, confirming a breakdown in key support levels. The MACD (-0.089) remains below its signal line (-0.165), while the RSI (58.74) suggests momentum is shifting decisively lower. Bollinger Bands show the price is now trading near the lower band ($7.37), amplifying the bearish bias. High turnover (6.18%) and the Kline pattern’s long-term bearish trend indicate a structural shift in sentiment, with short-term bullish momentum fading rapidly.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with High-Gamma Puts
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day average: $17.53 (well below current price)
- RSI: 58.74 (neutral but trending lower)
- Bollinger Bands: Price at $7.95 vs. lower band at $7.37
- MACD: -0.089 (bearish divergence)

Given the breakdown below key moving averages and the stock’s proximity to its 52-week low, a bearish bias is warranted. The SOC20260306P6 and SOC20260306P7.5 puts stand out for their high gamma and leverage potential.

SOC20260306P6:
- Code: SOC20260306P6
- Type: Put
- Strike Price: $6
- Expiration: 2026-03-06
- IV Ratio: 251.14% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 52.20% (amplified downside exposure)
- Delta: -0.19 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.038 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.088 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 7,695 (strong liquidity)
- Payoff (5% downside): $1.55 (max(0, 6 - 7.55))

SOC20260306P7.5:
- Code: SOC20260306P7.5
- Type: Put
- Strike Price: $7.5
- Expiration: 2026-03-06
- IV Ratio: 194.36% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 10.17% (limited amplification)
- Delta: -0.38 (strong sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.033 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.16 (extreme sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 77 (limited liquidity)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.05 (max(0, 7.5 - 7.55))

SOC20260306P6 is ideal for aggressive bearish bets due to its high gamma and liquidity, while SOC20260306P7.5 offers directional exposure with tighter strike alignment. If $7.37 (Bollinger lower band) breaks, these puts could see rapid premium expansion.

Backtest Sable Offshore Stock Performance
The performance of SOC after a -13% intraday plunge from 2022 to now has shown positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 56.13%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.92%, and the 30-Day win rate is 58.10%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate term. The maximum return during the backtest was 10.80% over 30 days, suggesting that SOC has the potential for recovery and even exceed pre-plunge levels.

Act Now: Position for a Potential Breakdown Below $7.37
The selloff in Sable Offshore reflects a structural bearish shift, with technicals and liquidity metrics aligning against a near-term recovery. While the sector leader Transocean (RIG) remains flat (up 0.078%), SOC’s divergence highlights its unique vulnerability. Traders should prioritize short-term puts like SOC20260306P6 and monitor the $7.37 support level. A breakdown below this threshold could trigger a cascade to $6.50, offering high-conviction entry points. Watch for $7.37 breakdown or regulatory reaction.