8:20 a.m. on August 20, the market opened lower in the morning, with the three major indices down by about 1%, and the CSI 300 and the ChiNext Index both hit new lows for the adjustment. Only a few sectors such as titanium white powder, star flash concept, and train and traffic, etc. rose, while the sectors such as rail transit, coal, education, oil and gas, etc. fell. Among the ETFs, the ETFs related to S&P and Nasdaq rose, with the CSI 300 Index ETF (159502) of CSI Asset Management rising 3.35%.
On the news front, on August 18, Mary Daly, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve in 2024, said in an interview with the Financial Times that the latest economic data shows that US inflation has been controlled, and it is time to consider adjusting borrowing costs from 5.25% to 5.5%. Daly called for a "cautious" approach. The US labor market has slowed down, but there is no need to worry too much. The US economy has not fallen into a crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Monday (August 19), and the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq recorded eight consecutive gains.
According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed's 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September is 77%, and the probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut is 23%. The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in November is 60.1%, the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point interest rate cut is 34.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 100-basis-point interest rate cut is 5.0%.
Some analysts believe that the reason for the Nasdaq's heavy fall in early August is that disappointing economic data has increased people's concerns about economic recession and made the market speculate that the Fed has fallen behind the situation in terms of interest rate cuts. But the latest economic data seems to have eased market anxiety and made people see hope again for a soft landing of the US economy. The retail sales and initial jobless claims data released on August 15 were good, easing investors' nerves.
China Guangfa Securities believes that the US economy tends to be soft landing rather than recession, and it is difficult to give a clear conclusion on whether the Fed will expand the interest rate cut by 50 basis points in September. The market's bet on a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September is increasing. The performance of non-agricultural data in the future may be more important for interest rate cuts.