Ryder System's Stock Plummets 10%: Earnings Disappointment or Strategic Reprieve?

Summary
• Ryder System (R) plunges 10.09% to $164.36, marking its worst intraday drop since 2023.
• Q3 revenue misses estimates at $3.17B vs. $3.197B, while EPS beats by $0.02.
• New $3.5M share repurchase plans and a 12% dividend hike fail to offset investor concerns.

Ryder’s sharp selloff follows a mixed earnings report, with revenue shortfalls in key segments and a bearish technical setup. The stock’s 52-week low of $125.54 looms as support, while the 200-day MA at $163.23 offers a critical near-term benchmark. Sector peers like UPS remain flat, highlighting Ryder’s unique volatility.

Earnings Miss and Segment Weakness Trigger Sell-Off
Ryder’s 10% decline stems from a Q3 revenue miss of $3.17B against $3.197B estimates, coupled with underperformance in its Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) segment, which saw a 10% revenue drop. While EPS of $3.57 exceeded expectations, the company’s 2025 guidance—narrowed to $12.85–$13.05 EPS—fell short of the $13.00 consensus. Management’s $2.8B free cash flow forecast and new share repurchase plans failed to reassure investors, as the stock’s 52-week low of $125.54 and 200-day MA at $163.23 now act as critical psychological and technical barriers.

Transportation Sector Mixed as UPS Stands Steady
The broader transportation sector remains fragmented, with California’s $4.9B infrastructure investment and UPS’s flat performance (0.0% intraday) contrasting Ryder’s selloff. While Ryder’s DTS struggles mirror weak freight conditions, peers like JB Hunt and CSX face similar macro headwinds. However, Ryder’s aggressive share buybacks and dividend hike differentiate it, though the stock’s 10.27% drop outpaces sector volatility.

Bearish Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Volatility
• 200-day MA: $163.22 (near current price)
• RSI: 39.56 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.75 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 162.65–194.34 (current price at lower band)

Ryder’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with the 200-day MA and 52-week low as key support levels. The stock’s 39.56 RSI and -0.75 MACD signal oversold conditions, but bearish momentum persists. For options, the R20251121P160 and R20251121P165 puts stand out:

• R20251121P160
- Strike: $160 | IV: 31.04% | Delta: -0.3797 | Theta: -0.0429 | Gamma: 0.0261 | Turnover: 10,808
- IV (Implied Volatility): High volatility suggests potential for price swings.
- Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price drops.
- Theta: Low time decay for November expiration.
- Gamma: Strong sensitivity to price movement.
- Turnover: High liquidity ensures ease of entry/exit.
- Payoff: At 5% downside (ST = $156.14), payoff = max(0, $156.14 - $160) = $0. This contract benefits from a 5% drop but requires a deeper move for profit.

• R20251121P165
- Strike: $165 | IV: 30.73% | Delta: -0.5161 | Theta: -0.0273 | Gamma: 0.0276 | Turnover: 6,448
- IV: Slightly lower than R20251121P160 but still robust.
- Delta: Higher sensitivity to price declines.
- Theta: Minimal time decay.
- Gamma: Strong responsiveness to price changes.
- Turnover: Sufficient liquidity.
- Payoff: At 5% downside (ST = $156.14), payoff = max(0, $156.14 - $165) = $0. This contract requires a larger price drop but offers higher leverage (25.54% leverage ratio).

Action: Aggressive bears may consider R20251121P165 into a breakdown below $163.23, while R20251121P160 offers a safer entry with lower leverage.

Backtest Ryder System Stock Performance
I encountered an error while running the event-backtest module: the event date list turned out to be empty, which caused the calculation routine inside the engine to fail. Root cause • The input file I generated (“R_intraday_10pct_plunge_dates_20220101_20251023.json”) contained no qualifying dates. • This happened because the dataset I pulled only carries daily-level technical fields (MA, EMA, etc.) and does not include intraday information such as the day’s low relative to the previous close. Therefore I couldn’t reliably detect a “-10 % intraday plunge”.Two possible ways forward1. Use a daily-close proxy (fastest) Treat any trading day where the close is at least 10 % below the previous day’s close as a plunge event. • Data requirements: only daily close prices (readily available). • Pros: quick to implement, still captures large shocks. • Cons: may miss sessions that plunged intraday but recovered by the close.2. Fetch true intraday (high/low) data (more accurate but data-heavy) Detect days where intraday low ≤ -10 % versus the previous close. • Requires an intraday price source (minute or at least daily O/H/L prices). • Will take slightly longer to pull and process.Please let me know which approach you prefer (or if you have another specification), and I’ll rerun the event detection and the performance back-test accordingly.

Ryder’s 10% Drop: A Buying Opportunity or a Warning?
Ryder’s 10% selloff reflects a mix of earnings underperformance and bearish technicals, but its 39.56 RSI and 200-day MA near $163.23 suggest a potential rebound. Investors should monitor the 52-week low of $125.54 and the $160 support level. For sector context, UPS’s flat performance (0.0% intraday) underscores Ryder’s unique volatility. Aggressive traders may target R20251121P165 for a deeper breakdown, while conservative bulls should wait for a bounce above $177.50 (intraday high). Watch for $160 support or a 5% rebound into $172.58.