Ryanair's Boeing Dilemma: Tariffs Threaten $30B Aircraft Orders and Airlines' Bottom Line

The U.S.-EU trade dispute over aerospace tariffs has reached a critical juncture, with Ryanair’s $30 billion order for Boeing 737 MAX aircraft now hanging in the balance. As tariffs on EU-made aircraft remain active in the U.S., the airline’s CEO has warned that cost increases could force a reassessment of its Boeing commitments—and even open the door to Chinese rival COMAC’s C919. This standoff carries profound implications for Boeing’s financial health, Ryanair’s growth plans, and the broader aerospace supply chain.

The Tariff Trap: How 10% Duties Could Upend Boeing’s Orders

The U.S. maintains a 10% tariff on all EU imports, including Airbus aircraft, as part of its broader 2025 trade measures. While Airbus has circumvented these costs by rerouting deliveries through third countries, Boeing faces a unique vulnerability: its top European customer, Ryanair, is now threatening to walk away if tariffs inflate aircraft prices.

Ryanair’s order for 330 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft—including 29 due by March 2026 and 150 larger MAX 10 variants—totals over $30 billion. A 10% tariff on each plane could add $13–$14 million per aircraft, depending on the model. For context, a 10% tariff on a single $145 million MAX 10 would cost Ryanair $14.5 million—equivalent to 10% of its 2023 net profit.

Boeing’s stock has already fallen nearly 25% since 2020 due to supply chain delays and rising costs. A mass cancellation by Ryanair—its largest European buyer—would amplify this pain, potentially erasing billions in revenue and further destabilizing Boeing’s order backlog.

Ryanair’s Playbook: Threaten, Delay, or Go Chinese?

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has made it clear: “If tariffs materially affect aircraft prices, we will reassess our orders.” The airline’s options are stark:

1. Delay Deliveries: Postpone MAX 10 deliveries (beginning in 2027) until tariffs are resolved or renegotiated.
2. Seek Alternatives: Explore COMAC’s C919, which offers a 10–20% price advantage but lacks EU certification and has smaller seating capacity (150–190 seats vs. the MAX 10’s 230 seats).
3. Pass Costs to Customers: Risk higher ticket prices amid a fragile airline industry, where Q1 2025 data already shows 40% of U.S. airlines withdrew earnings forecasts due to tariff uncertainty.

The geopolitical stakes are equally high. U.S. lawmakers have raised concerns about COMAC’s ties to China’s military-industrial complex, while the EU could retaliate with tariffs on Boeing.

The Bigger Picture: Trade Wars and Supply Chain Fallout

The U.S.-EU tariff clash isn’t isolated. Broader U.S. import tariffs (excluding Canada/Mexico) have strained global supply chains, with ocean freight rates depressed and blank sailings hitting pandemic-era highs. For Ryanair, the ripple effects are clear:
- A 10% tariff on Boeing’s MAX 200 ($130 million/aircraft) would add $13 million per plane—10% of Ryanair’s 2023 net profit.
- The airline’s 2025 passenger growth target of 210 million hinges on timely deliveries, which tariffs could jeopardize.

The U.S. economy’s 0.3% Q1 GDP contraction underscores the broader fragility of trade-dependent industries. Airlines like Delta have already spent $150 million+ rerouting Airbus deliveries through Tokyo to avoid tariffs—a tactic Ryanair, with its budget-focused model, may struggle to replicate.

Conclusion: The Clock Is Ticking for Boeing and Ryanair

Ryanair’s Boeing orders are a high-stakes poker game. With $30 billion in potential cancellations on the table and COMAC’s C919 lurking as a cheaper alternative, Boeing must resolve the tariff issue swiftly—or risk losing its European anchor.

The math is grim:
- A 10% tariff on 330 Boeing aircraft would cost Ryanair $4–$5 billion in added costs.
- Boeing’s stock (BA) has already shed $30 billion in market cap since 2020; further losses could trigger a liquidity crisis.
- U.S. GDP is already contracting, and the IMF has downgraded global growth to 2.8% in 2025, with U.S. recession risks at 40%.

The window for resolution is narrow. EU-U.S. trade talks in late April/early May 2025 must yield tariff exemptions for aerospace products—or Ryanair’s threat will force Boeing into a financial freefall, reshaping the airline industry’s landscape for years to come.