Rwanda signaled that it could withdraw its troops from northern Mozambique, where they've played a central role in securing the Cabo Delgado region, the site of $50 billion in natural gas projects.

Rwanda has indicated it may withdraw troops from northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region, where they have been deployed since 2021 to secure a $50 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) project amid an Islamic State-linked insurgency. The Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) faces dual challenges: U.S. sanctions imposed for alleged involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s conflict and the expiration of €20 million in European Union funding for its operations in May 2026, with no renewal planned according to Bloomberg. A government spokeswoman stated that if the RDF determines its efforts are undervalued, the government could terminate the bilateral security agreement as reported.

The withdrawal would heighten security risks for Cabo Delgado, where TotalEnergies SE and Exxon Mobil Corp. are advancing major LNG developments. The region’s strategic importance has grown as global energy markets seek alternatives following disruptions to Qatar’s LNG supplies. Rwanda’s 5,000-strong deployment, including 3,000 troops dedicated to securing the LNG site, has been critical to stabilizing the area since attacks forced TotalEnergies to suspend operations in 2021 according to ISS Africa. While the project resumed in January 2026, prolonged conflict and security costs have already cost Mozambique an estimated $4.5 billion in delayed revenues as detailed.

Mozambican President Daniel Chapo, currently in Brussels, has sought to extend the RDF’s presence through a Status of Forces Agreement until 2029 according to Bloomberg. However, U.S. sanctions and the EU’s funding cutoff complicate this arrangement. An EU spokesperson noted it is assessing the implications of the sanctions but confirmed no plans to extend financial support as reported. The outcome could influence broader regional stability, as Cabo Delgado’s LNG projects are vital to Mozambique’s economic transformation and global energy diversification efforts according to ISS Africa.