RVNUSDT Market Overview: Volatility and Downtrend Reinforced

• Price opened at 0.01344 and closed at 0.01319 after a bearish 24-hour session
• Volatility spiked during the early AM session, forming a key high near 0.01363
• Oversold RSI conditions emerged near 0.01305, hinting at potential support
• Large volume expansion occurred during the sharp decline from 0.0136 to 0.01319
• Bollinger Band contraction at 0.01351 preceded a sharp bearish breakout

Ravencoin/Tether (RVNUSDT) opened at $0.01344 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01319 by the same time the following day. The pair reached a high of $0.01361 and a low of $0.01303 within the 24-hour window. The total volume traded was 62.5 million RVN, and the notional turnover amounted to approximately $8,582,000. The session showed strong bearish momentum and clear signs of distribution.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key resistance levels at 0.01361 and 0.01356 repeatedly during the early morning hours but failed to hold above those levels. A significant bearish breakout occurred from 0.0136 to 0.01319, supported by a long lower wick and high volume on the 09:00 ET candle (0.01318 open, 0.01306 close). A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 07:45 ET candle, confirming a shift in sentiment. A bearish morning star was evident at 0.01347–0.01333 during a brief rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke decisively below both the 20-period (0.01354) and 50-period (0.01356) moving averages, signaling short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, while the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA (bullish), the closing price at 0.01319 has now fallen below the 100-period MA, suggesting a weakening in the longer-term bullish trend. This creates a mixed signal between short- and long-term trends.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned sharply negative after 06:00 ET, with the histogram contracting in size after the 09:00 ET sell-off. RSI plunged from ~70 to ~30, entering oversold territory at 0.01305. While this could indicate a potential bounce, the divergence between price and RSI (price continuing lower as RSI hit oversold levels) suggests that the bearish momentum may not have fully dissipated. The RSI has not yet shown a decisive bottoming divergence.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility tightened significantly during the early AM session, with price consolidating around 0.01351 before breaking out sharply lower. The 09:00 ET candle closed near the lower Bollinger Band at 0.01306. The contraction before the breakout is a classic sign of a potential directional move, in this case to the downside. The current wide band suggests high uncertainty and potential for further volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 08:15–09:00 ET window, with the 08:15 candle alone seeing 21 million RVN traded. This coincided with the price breakdown from 0.01334 to 0.01319. Notional turnover rose sharply during this phase, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, volume has since dropped off, suggesting potential exhaustion in the short-term downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the 0.01361–0.01303 move include 38.2% at 0.01343 and 61.8% at 0.01325. Price is currently near the 61.8% level, which could act as a potential support zone. On the 15-minute chart, a retracement from 0.01361 to 0.01355 shows key levels at 0.01357 and 0.01352, both of which were tested and broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 15-minute 50-period MA and RSI drops below 50, with a stop-loss placed just above the previous 15-minute candle's high. A long entry is triggered when price bounces off the 61.8% Fibonacci level and RSI crosses above 50 with confirmation from a bullish engulfing pattern. This setup could be backtested to assess its viability in capturing short-term swings in a volatile asset like RVN. The strategy relies on combining moving average crossovers, RSI levels, and Fibonacci retracements to improve signal accuracy.