RVNUSDT Market Overview: Bearish Consolidation and Oversold Momentum

• Price declined from 0.01189 to 0.01152 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum with a key breakdown below 0.01173.
• High volatility observed between 17:00–19:00 ET, with over 1.1 million RVN traded in that window.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, with price near 0.01152 and no immediate bullish confirmation.
• Volume expanded during the sell-off but contracted near the close, indicating potential short-term exhaustion.
• Key support at 0.01154–0.01158 and resistance at 0.01164–0.01166 identified from Fibonacci and structure.

Ravencoin/Tether (RVNUSDT) opened at 0.01175 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.01198, and closed at 0.01152 by 12:00 ET the following day. The total traded volume was 65,838,664 RVN, with a turnover of approximately $7,740,737. The price trended lower, forming a bearish structure with a breakdown below key support at 0.01173.

The 15-minute chart shows a descending triangle forming in the late afternoon hours, with several bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow near the session low of 0.01154. Price action appears to have found short-term support at 0.01154–0.01158 and resistance at 0.01164–0.01166. A 20-period moving average has crossed below the 50-period, confirming the short-term bearish bias, while the 50/200 daily crossover is neutral, indicating no strong directional bias on the larger timeframe.

MACD has crossed into negative territory with a bearish crossover and a diverging momentum, while RSI has fallen into oversold territory at 28, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound. Bollinger Bands are currently in a contraction phase, indicating a possible breakout or continuation of the current trend. Price has been trading near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The volume profile highlights increased selling pressure between 17:00–19:00 ET, but a drop in volume at the session close suggests that the immediate bearish move may be near exhaustion.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute swing from 0.01175 to 0.01154 show price finding a potential 38.2% retracement at 0.01164 and 61.8% at 0.01160. On the daily chart, these levels could serve as potential areas for a bounce or a continuation of the downtrend. The combination of structure, momentum, and volatility suggests that a rebound is possible, but a sustained move above 0.01166 would be needed to confirm a reversal.

A potential reversal could emerge from the 0.01154–0.01158 support range if buying pressure intensifies, but a break below this zone could extend the move toward 0.01145. Investors should monitor for a bullish engulfing pattern or a higher high on expanding volume as a confirmation signal. In the near term, expect consolidation or a test of the 0.01154 level.

Backtest Hypothesis
Using the identified Fibonacci retracement levels and bearish structure from the past 24 hours, a potential long entry could be set at the 0.01154–0.01158 support zone with a stop-loss below 0.01145. A target could be placed at 0.01164–0.01166, corresponding to the 38.2% retracement level. This setup would aim to capitalize on a short-term bounce in oversold conditions while managing downside risk. A trailing stop could be activated once the price breaks above 0.01166 to lock in gains.