RVNUSDT Market Overview

• Price retreated from a key swing high after initial bullish momentum flagged potential overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded midday, with volume spiking alongside a sharp pullback into support.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near critical resistance, signaling a potential reversal.
• RSI entered overbought territory early before diverging with price, hinting at weakening bullish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the market consolidated below key Fibonacci retracement levels.

Ravencoin/Tether (RVNUSDT) opened at $0.00961 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.00983, and closed at $0.00919 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 106,904,019.9 units and a notional turnover of $966,689. The price action reflected a bearish shift after a short-lived bullish thrust.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong initial push from $0.00961 to $0.00983, followed by a bearish reversal as buyers lost control. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 20-period line, confirming the shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, but the recent pullback has brought price near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally—raising questions about the sustainability of the bullish trend.

The RSI on the 15-minute chart peaked above 70 early in the session, then diverged with price as the pair dropped into support. This suggests weakening demand and a possible exhaustion of the short-term bullish wave. Meanwhile, the MACD line crossed into negative territory with a bearish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of further downward pressure. Bollinger Bands expanded during the pullback, reflecting increased volatility, with price currently trading near the lower band—suggesting potential oversold conditions, though caution is warranted given the bearish context.

Looking forward, the next 24 hours may see RVNUSDT test the $0.00914 level, a prior support that could offer a temporary floor. However, a break below that could target $0.00907. Traders should also watch for a potential rebound from this level, especially if volume rises in line with the bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The identified bullish engulfing pattern near a key resistance level could be the basis for a backtest strategy. Assuming the rule is to exit when price first trades above the high of the engulfing candle (Option A), a long position would have been initiated at the open of that candle and closed at the breakout high. Over a multi-year backtest from 2022-01-01 to today, this rule would capture the effectiveness of the pattern in a range-bound or trending environment. Integrating the 20-period MA as a filter—only entering long when the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA—could further refine the strategy by avoiding bearish trends. The RSI divergence observed in the 15-minute chart also suggests that combining momentum indicators with the pattern could enhance signal reliability.