Russia YTD consumer prices rise 2.14 in Feb. 24 week

Russia YTD consumer prices rise 2.14 in Feb. 24 week

Russia’s Year-to-Date Consumer Prices Rise 2.14% in Week Ending February 24, 2026

Year-to-date (YTD) consumer prices in Russia increased by 2.14% in the week ending February 24, 2026, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures amid evolving monetary policy and fiscal adjustments. This rise follows a broader trend of price acceleration in early 2026, driven by one-off proinflationary factors such as VAT increases and lingering supply-side constraints according to CBR.

Annual inflation in Russia reached 6% in January 2026, up from a two-year low of 5.6% in December 2025, according to the Federal State Statistics Service. While this increase fell short of expectations for a sharper rise to 6.4%, it marked the first uptick since March 2025. The Bank of Russia attributed the acceleration to higher service-sector inflation (9.6%) and partial pass-through of VAT hikes to consumers, though food inflation remained relatively subdued at 5.9% according to Trading Economics.

The central bank has emphasized the need for continued tight monetary policy to bring inflation down to its 4% target. Despite temporary proinflationary shocks, high-frequency data indicate economic activity picked up in Q4 2025, supported by consumer and public demand according to CBR. However, core inflation—excluding volatile food and energy—remained elevated at 7.7% in January 2026, underscoring the challenges of stabilizing price growth according to Trading Economics.

Looking ahead, the Bank of Russia projects inflation to range between 6.5% and 7% in 2026, with a gradual decline expected by year-end. Long-term forecasts from Trading Economics suggest inflation could trend toward 4.1% by 2027, aligning with the central bank's target according to Trading Economics. For now, policymakers remain cautious, balancing the need to curb inflation with the risks of stifling economic recovery.

Investors should monitor upcoming CPI releases and the Bank of Russia's policy statements for further insights into inflation trajectory and monetary tightening measures.