Russia Ukraine Talks End With Prisoner Exchange, No Ceasefire

The third round of formal talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials concluded in Istanbul, with both sides agreeing to exchange more prisoners of war. However, no significant progress was made towards a ceasefire agreement. The Ukrainian delegation proposed a summit between the two countries' leaders by the end of August, which would also include the leaders of the United States and Turkey. The Russian delegation countered that holding a summit without first agreeing to a peace deal would be pointless, stating that the talks would be meaningless if they only involved rehashing previous discussions.

The Russian side proposed the establishment of three working groups despite the significant differences in positions between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian side reiterated its demand for a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire to facilitate peace negotiations, urging Russia to adopt a constructive and pragmatic approach. Prior to the main group negotiations, the two leaders engaged in a direct conversation that lasted less than 40 minutes.

Before the latest round of talks, the U.S. President had set a 50-day deadline for the Russian President to agree to a ceasefire, threatening severe secondary sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil and gas if the deadline was not met. The previous rounds of talks, held in May and June, had only resulted in agreements on prisoner exchanges and the return of fallen soldiers' remains. The Ukrainian President had expressed hope that the current round of talks would address new exchange agreements and the issue of Ukrainian children being taken away.

The talks, which were held in a closed-door format, resulted in an agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners from each side, marking the largest prisoner exchange since the start of the war. The two sides also agreed to communicate the terms of the ceasefire in writing and, in principle, to hold further talks. Despite the significant differences in their positions, both sides agreed to maintain contact and continue negotiations. The Russian side had previously stated that the talks would be complex, as previous rounds had only resulted in agreements on prisoner exchanges and the return of fallen soldiers' remains. The Russian side had refused to drop its hardline demands, including the cession of territories that Ukraine could not accept. The Ukrainian side had expressed hope that the current round of talks would result in a ceasefire agreement, but the Russian side had refused to drop its demands.

Analysis: The latest round of talks between Russia and Ukraine highlights the ongoing challenges in achieving a ceasefire agreement. While both sides agreed to exchange prisoners and maintain communication, the significant differences in their positions remain a major obstacle. The Ukrainian side's demand for a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire contrasts with the Russian side's hardline demands, including the cession of territories that Ukraine cannot accept. The establishment of three working groups by the Russian side is a step towards addressing these differences, but it remains to be seen whether this will lead to a breakthrough in the negotiations. The Ukrainian side's proposal for a summit between the leaders of the two countries, as well as the leaders of the United States and Turkey, is a significant development, but the Russian side's reluctance to hold a summit without first agreeing to a peace deal suggests that this proposal may not be accepted. The U.S. President's 50-day deadline for a ceasefire agreement adds pressure on both sides to reach a resolution, but the threat of secondary sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil and gas may not be enough to change the Russian side's position. The ongoing conflict and the lack of progress in the negotiations highlight the need for continued diplomatic efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution.