Russia Jan. unemployment rate 2.2; est. 2.3%

Russia Jan. unemployment rate 2.2; est. 2.3%

Russia’s Unemployment Rate Holds at 2.2% in January 2026, Aligning With Forecasts

Russia’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.2% in January 2026, consistent with market expectations and reflecting continued labor market tightness despite a modest rise from 2.1% in November 2025 according to Trading Economics data. The rate, which has hovered near record lows since February 2022, underscores persistent labor shortages driven by military mobilization, defense sector hiring, and emigration following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as reported by Trading Economics.

The number of unemployed individuals increased slightly to 1.643 million in December 2025 from 1.636 million in November, while the total labor force remained stable at 76.3 million. Employment stood at 74.7 million, maintaining an employment rate of 61.7%. Officially registered unemployment, a narrower metric, remained broadly stable at approximately 0.3 million according to Trading Economics.

Analysts project the unemployment rate to rise to 2.3% by the end of Q1 2026, according to Trading Economics models and expert forecasts. Long-term projections suggest the rate may trend toward 3.0% by 2027 as labor market pressures evolve according to Trading Economics analysis.

Russian authorities have highlighted growing challenges, with estimates indicating a potential labor shortfall of 2.5–5.0 million workers by 2030. This shortage, exacerbated by demographic shifts and ongoing military demands, risks constraining economic growth and workforce availability in civilian industries according to Trading Economics data.

Historically, Russia’s unemployment rate averaged 6.72% from 1992 to 2025, with a record low of 2.1% in August 2025. The current trajectory suggests continued low unemployment but intensifying structural pressures as labor supply struggles to meet demand across key sectors according to Trading Economics.

Trading Economics data: Federal State Statistics Service, Trading Economics macro models (February 2026 data).

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