Russia Hints at Lowering Nuclear Use Threshold Amid Rising Tensions with West

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has issued a stern warning that Moscow might revise its nuclear weapons usage principles, in response to the escalating actions of Western countries in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing nuclear weapons to be used in the event of a nuclear attack or conventional attack threatening the nation's existence. Some Russian military hawks have been advocating for lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use to deter Western adversaries. Putin emphasized in June that the nuclear principles could evolve with changing global circumstances.
Ryabkov's recent comments are the most explicit indication yet that such changes in nuclear weapon usage principles might indeed occur. He stated, "This work is in the final stage, with clear intentions for modifications." He linked this decision directly to the escalating actions of Western opponents in the Ukraine conflict.
Ryabkov did not specify when the revised nuclear principles would be ready. Despite these ambiguities, Russia's nuclear arsenal remains the largest globally. In March, Putin asserted that Moscow was prepared for a potential nuclear war from a military-technical perspective, but emphasized there was no urgent need for nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Putin had previously warned at the onset of the conflict in February 2022 that any entity attempting to hinder or threaten Russia would face unprecedented consequences. Subsequent Russian declarations, perceived by the West as nuclear threats, included the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
This escalation from Russia has not deterred the United States and its allies from ramping up military aid to Ukraine, including tanks, long-range missiles, and F-16 fighter jets, which was previously unimaginable when the war started. Russia has accused the West of using Ukraine as a proxy to wage war against it, aiming for a "strategic defeat" and potential disintegration of Russia. However, the U.S. and its Western allies deny these allegations, asserting their goal is to assist Ukraine in defending itself against Russian aggression.
Recently, Ukraine sent thousands of troops across the border into Russia's western Kursk region, a move that shocked Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed this demonstrated the insignificance of Putin's "red lines" and has been urging the U.S. to allow the use of advanced Western weaponry against targets within Russia.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov echoed these sentiments in an interview, stating that the West had "gone too far" and that Russia would do everything to protect its interests.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also warned on August 27 that allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia would be "playing with fire," suggesting that such actions could trigger a global nuclear conflict, affecting not just Europe but potentially extending to the U.S. and Canada. Lavrov stressed that Russia's stance on nuclear weapon use is unequivocal and serious.
While nuclear-armed states typically adhere to a no-first-use policy, Russia's frequent allusions to nuclear threats draw parallels to North Korea. Analysts argue that there is a risk of the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalating into a nuclear war, despite the general consensus that this remains a remote possibility. Western countries have maintained a cautious stance regarding the use of their weapons in Ukraine, demonstrating restraint in targeting sensitive sites like the Crimea bridge, primarily due to the potential risk of nuclear escalation.
Ukraine has not remained passive, utilizing both domestically developed and Western-provided technology, such as drones and modified missiles, to target Russian assets with some success, producing tangible results such as control over certain Russian territories. Western support is helping Ukraine develop its own missile production capabilities, reducing the risk of directly using Western missiles that could provoke nuclear conflict.