Russia May exports $33.094B

Russia May exports $33.094B

Russia's fossil fuel exports in the second quarter of 2025 have shown a mixed bag of results, with revenues dropping to the lowest figures since the invasion of Ukraine, according to a recent analysis by Petras Katinas, Luke Wickenden, and Vaibhav Raghunandan [1]. Despite an 8% increase in export volumes compared to the first quarter, Russian fossil fuel revenues dropped by 18% year-on-year, reaching their lowest quarterly figure since the conflict began.

The decline in revenues is largely attributed to a 16% drop in gas deliveries via TurkStream in the second quarter, following the end of gas transit through Ukraine. Total monthly exports fell from 3.32 bcm in April to just 3.01 bcm in June, representing a 9.4% quarter-on-quarter drop [1].

However, there were some notable increases in specific sectors. For instance, Russian seaborne oil exports saw a sharp 25% month-on-month increase in June, with over half of these exports transported on G7+ tankers, a 6 percentage point increase from May [1]. This trend is part of a broader shift, as the G7+ share in Russian oil transport has increased from 36% to 56% since January.

China remained the largest global buyer of Russian fossil fuels in June 2025, accounting for 38% of Russia’s monthly export earnings from the top five importers. Crude oil comprised 64% of China’s imports from Russia, with imports of seaborne crude rising by 5% month-on-month [1].

The EU, despite not sanctioning natural gas, remains a significant buyer, with its imports accounting for 10% of the top five purchasers. Belgium's purchases of Russian LNG rose by 53% month-on-month in June, totaling EUR 300 mn [1].

The EU Commission recently proposed lowering the oil price cap to USD 45 per barrel, which would have cut Russian revenues by 28% in June alone, according to CREA analysis [1]. This move comes amidst global oil price fluctuations, with the average Urals spot price rising by 14% in June to USD 65.1 per barrel [1].

Overall, while Russia's fossil fuel exports show signs of recovery in specific sectors, the broader trend indicates a continued decline in revenues, driven by reduced gas deliveries and increased enforcement of price caps.

References:
[1] Petras Katinas, Luke Wickenden & Vaibhav Raghunandan. June 2025 Monthly Analysis of Russian Fossil Fuel Exports and Sanctions. Energy and Clean Air. https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2025-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/