Russia Cuts 2025 Energy Export Revenue Forecast by 15% Amid Oil Price Decline

Russia has revised down its expectations for energy export revenues by 15% for the year 2025. This adjustment is primarily due to the decline in oil prices, which has significant implications for the country's national budget. Energy export revenues, particularly from oil and gas, are a critical component of Russia's fiscal framework, accounting for approximately one-third of the national budget.

The revision comes at a time when Russia is already grappling with high defense expenditures due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The downward adjustment in energy export revenue projections adds further strain to the national budget, which is already burdened by the costs of military operations. The macroeconomic forecast document, which serves as the basis for the national budget, indicates that Russia anticipates earning $20.03 billion from oil and gas exports this year, a 15% decrease from the previous year's projection of $23.5 billion and the September 2023 forecast.

Looking ahead, the Russian government projects oil and gas export revenues to be $22.04 billion in 2026, $23.1 billion in 2027, and $24.41 billion in 2028. These figures represent a 4% and 1.1% decrease from previous estimates for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a 2.6% increase projected for 2028. The decline in oil prices has been a significant factor in these revisions, with the Ministry of Economic Development having previously lowered its 2025 oil price forecast by nearly 17%. The Central Bank of Russia also warned in early April that oil prices could face a period of weakness in the coming years.

In April, the price of Urals crude oil fell to its lowest level since 2023, reaching approximately $53 per barrel, and its trading price remained below $60 per barrel in the following week. The document also reveals that the Ministry of Economic Development has reduced its forecast for Russia's oil production in 2025 to 516 million tons (10.32 million barrels per day), matching the previous year's output and falling short of the earlier projection of 518.6 million tons. Additionally, the document indicates that pipeline natural gas exports, which plummeted following Russia's military operation in Ukraine in 2022, are expected to recover to 89.1 billion cubic meters by 2025, up from 80.6 billion cubic meters in 2024 and 69.3 billion cubic meters in 2023.