RUNEUSDT Market Overview

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) closed 3.4% lower after forming bearish divergence with volume.
• Key support tested at 0.885–0.888, with RSI near oversold territory.
• 15-minute volatility expanded, with price breaking below 20/50 EMA for bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed pre-06:00 ET, followed by sharp drop below the lower band.

Market Summary

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 0.902 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded as high as 0.913 before closing at 0.884 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window reached 3,863,405.8, while turnover amounted to approximately $3,484,664.7. The asset displayed bearish bias across the 15-minute timeframe, with increasing bearish momentum and divergences noted in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a broad bearish trend following a failed bullish attempt in the early hours of 10/28. A notable bearish divergence appeared after 08:00 ET when price failed to retest earlier support at 0.888, despite higher volume. A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 06:45 ET, followed by a sharp drop below 0.885. The daily chart shows the price is below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing medium-term bearish pressure. Key support levels to watch are 0.880 (61.8% Fib retracement of the 10/27–10/28 move) and 0.875 (psychological level), with resistance at 0.891.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages are aligned bearishly, with price closing below both. The RSI (14) dipped below 30 into oversold territory by 10:45 ET, though this could signal a short-term bounce. The MACD histogram displayed bearish divergence with price, especially after 09:00 ET. Daily moving averages suggest further bearish momentum, with the 50-day MA at 0.903 acting as immediate overhead resistance.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly between 02:00 and 07:00 ET, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band. A prior contraction occurred between 00:00 and 02:00 ET, followed by a directional breakout to the downside. The current price action sits well below the 20-period band, indicating high volatility and bearish conviction. If price retests the 0.885–0.888 range and fails to close above it, a deeper decline to 0.875–0.880 could be expected.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged to over 269,796.9 at 21:30 ET as price dropped sharply to 0.892, followed by another large print at 23:00 ET (86,512.2) as the asset broke below 0.890. However, volume has since declined, and the price has continued lower on reduced participation. A divergence is observed in the latter half of the session, where price continues to fall despite lower volume and turnover. This may indicate exhaustion or a lack of short-term liquidity, hinting at a potential short-term bounce or consolidation in the 0.885–0.888 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand the potential for a bearish continuation, a backtest of the MACD Death Cross event on RUNE/USDT since 2022 would be informative. Given the current bearish momentum and the divergence observed in the MACD histogram, a strategy based on MACD line crossing below the signal line in conjunction with RSI in oversold conditions could offer a testable hypothesis. However, without the correct ticker symbol or data source, this strategy cannot be validated. Confirmation on the preferred exchange—such as “BINANCE:RUNEUSDT” or another venue—would allow for a precise backtest to assess the reliability of this pattern in predicting further declines.