Rumors Swirl About Venezuela's $60 Billion in Bitcoin as Experts Doubt Claims

Rumors of Venezuela holding $60 billion in Bitcoin have gained traction following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro. The claim emerged alongside his arrest over the weekend, fueling speculation about the U.S. potential involvement in the country's digital assets. However, the lack of verifiable on-chain evidence or specific addresses makes it difficult to substantiate the figure.

The report attributing the figure to Venezuela's Bitcoin stash came from the digital publication Project Brazen, which provided little proof to support the claim. Analysts at Nansen, a crypto forensic firm, expressed doubts about the feasibility of verifying the alleged holdings.

Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, co-founder of Ledn, added skepticism, noting that Venezuela's widespread corruption and mismanagement make it unlikely that the government holds such a large sum in digital assets. He explained that if such a reserve existed, it would likely be controlled by a few individuals rather than the state.

Venezuela has a long history of experimenting with cryptocurrencies. In 2018, Maduro introduced the Petro, a government-backed token that failed after six years. The country's citizens have increasingly turned to stablecoins to combat hyperinflation and currency instability. Independent estimates, such as as those from Bitcointreasuries.net, place Venezuela's Bitcoin holdings at a much lower figure of around $22 million.

The U.S. is now considering plans to seize Venezuela's oil reserves, with officials indicating a desire to control the country's energy sector and generate revenue. Some speculate that Bitcoin holdings could become part of the asset package. However, experts like Andrew Fierman from Chainalysis say the likelihood of seizing crypto assets remains unclear.

Why Did This Happen?

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela has intensified with the capture of Maduro and the seizure of oil tankers. The move aims to tighten control over Venezuela's oil exports, a critical resource for the country's economy. U.S. forces have taken control of five oil tankers linked to Venezuela, with more expected to follow.

The Trump administration has framed its actions as a necessary step to restore stability and ensure compliance with international law. President Trump has stated that the U.S. will "run" Venezuela for an unspecified period, potentially using its oil wealth to fund reconstruction and investment.

Despite these claims, some U.S. officials and analysts have expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of the strategy. Critics argue that seizing a few tankers will not significantly weaken Russia, China, or Iran's influence in the region. The real challenge, according to experts, is whether the U.S. can sustain its operations and avoid escalating tensions with these nations.

How Did Markets React?

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela has had a noticeable effect on crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC) has surged in the wake of the events, with its price rising nearly 5% in the past three days to over $90,000. Analysts attribute the move to increased speculation about the potential economic impact of U.S. control over Venezuela's oil and possible crypto assets.

The broader crypto market has also seen gains, with the total market capitalization rising by approximately $100 billion. Traders are closely watching how the situation unfolds, particularly the implications for Bitcoin's price and market volatility. Some analysts believe that a long-term freeze of Venezuela's crypto assets could support higher Bitcoin prices, especially if the assets are held as a strategic reserve rather than sold off.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The uncertainty surrounding Venezuela's Bitcoin holdings has led to varied predictions among analysts. One potential scenario is that the U.S. could seize the assets and freeze them, making them unavailable for sale or transfer. This would likely have a stabilizing effect on Bitcoin prices by reducing the supply of large-scale crypto movements.

Another possibility is that the U.S. could choose to use the assets strategically, either as part of a reserve or for diplomatic leverage. Analysts say this would depend on the administration's broader economic goals and how it plans to rebuild Venezuela's economy.

The most unlikely scenario, according to experts, is a fire sale of Venezuela's crypto assets. Such an event could trigger market volatility and undermine Bitcoin's price. However, analysts believe the U.S. would likely avoid this outcome to maintain stability and control over the situation.

Regardless of the specific outcome, analysts are closely monitoring the situation for signs of how the U.S. intends to manage Venezuela's assets. The potential impact on global financial markets and the geopolitical landscape makes this a key development for investors and policymakers alike. According to experts, this remains a critical development for global financial stability.