Is Rumble (RUM) Stock a Buy After the Recent Selloff?

The recent selloff in Rumble (RUM) has left the stock trading at $7.70 as of August 19, 2025, down 37.9% year-to-date. This decline, while steep, is not an isolated event but part of a broader correction in the tech sector and a broader market recalibration ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. For long-term investors, the question is whether this selloff represents a buying opportunity or a warning sign. To answer this, we must dissect the interplay of valuation pressure, market sentiment, and strategic catalysts that could drive a rebound.

Valuation Pressure: A Symptom of Broader Market Dynamics

RUM's decline mirrors the struggles of the broader tech sector, particularly in AI-driven stocks like Nvidia and AMD. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has dragged down the market as investors lock in gains ahead of potential Fed policy shifts. Rumble, with its high volatility (4.60%) and wide Bollinger Bands, is a microcosm of this sector-wide anxiety.

From a technical standpoint, RUM is in a bearish setup. The stock has fallen below key support levels, with volume surging on down days—a classic sign of capitulation. A breakdown below $7.67 could accelerate the decline, while a rebound above $8.03 might signal short-term buying interest. However, the trailing twelve-month (TTM) net loss of $301.17 million and a TTM EPS of -$1.44 underscore the company's unprofitable reality. At a market cap of $2.6 billion, RUM trades at a discount to its peers but remains a speculative bet.

Market Sentiment: Insider Selling and Technical Bearishness

Insider selling has been a persistent headwind. In early 2025, CEO Christopher Pavlovski and CFO Brandon Alexandroff sold tens of millions of shares at prices above $12, while director Robert Arsov continued a pattern of sales throughout the year. The Quiver Insider Confidence Signal is “Negative,” reflecting a lack of informative buying activity. While insider selling can often be attributed to liquidity needs or diversification, it raises questions about confidence in Rumble's near-term prospects.

Technically, RUM is in a freefall. The stock has declined in 8 of the last 10 trading days, with moving averages and MACD signals all pointing downward. Analysts project a -8.78% decline over the next three months, with a potential range of $7.00 to $8.89. This bearish outlook is compounded by the upcoming earnings report on November 17, 2025, which is expected to show a negative surprise (projected EPS of -$0.06).

Strategic Catalysts: Monetization Progress and Partnerships

Despite the gloom, Rumble has made strides in monetization. Q2 2025 revenue rose 12% year-over-year to $25.1 million, driven by Audience Monetization (subscriptions, licensing) and Other Initiatives (cloud services). Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) increased 24% to $0.42, a positive sign for scaling. However, Monthly Active Users (MAUs) dipped to 51 million from 59 million in Q1, attributed to the absence of a U.S. election cycle—a temporary headwind.

Strategic partnerships are emerging as key catalysts. Rumble's collaboration with MoonPay to launch a crypto wallet in Q3 2025, its blockchain infrastructure work with TRON DAO, and its inclusion in the Russell 2000® and Russell 3000® Indexes signal institutional validation. These moves could attract new investors and diversify revenue streams. Additionally, the company's $25 million in Bitcoin holdings (part of $306.4 million in liquidity) provide a buffer for growth initiatives.

The Fed Factor: Policy Uncertainty and Sector Rotation

The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions loom large. While optimism for a September rate cut initially buoyed RUM (a 6.1% gain in late July), fading inflation data and dovish signals have since cooled enthusiasm. A rate cut could reignite AI and tech stocks, but Rumble's low beta (0.72) suggests it may lag in a rally. Conversely, a hawkish pivot would likely deepen the selloff.

Is This a Strategic Entry Point?

For long-term investors, the answer hinges on risk tolerance. RUM's fundamentals remain unproven—its losses are persistent, and its business model relies on scaling monetization. However, the stock's 52.7% drop from its $17.40 52-week high offers a discount to its peak, and strategic partnerships hint at untapped potential.

Investment Considerations:
1. Valuation Discount: RUM trades at a steep discount to its 52-week high, but its P/E ratio is meaningless due to losses. A rebound would require significant revenue growth or a shift in market sentiment.
2. Catalysts to Watch: The Rumble Wallet launch, Bitcoin price action, and Fed policy decisions could drive short-term volatility.
3. Risk Management: A breakdown below $7.67 could trigger a deeper decline, while a rebound above $8.83 might signal a short-term bottom.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Proposition

Rumble's recent selloff is a mix of macroeconomic headwinds, sector volatility, and internal challenges. While the stock's fundamentals remain unproven, its strategic moves in crypto, cloud, and monetization offer a glimmer of hope. For investors with a high-risk tolerance and a multi-year horizon, RUM could be a speculative buy at these levels—but only if they're prepared for further downside. For others, patience may be the better strategy until the company's monetization progress and Fed policy clarity provide clearer signals.