Rubber futures in Shanghai climb more than 4.5%

Rubber futures in Shanghai climb more than 4.5%

Shanghai Rubber Futures Climb Over 4.5% Amid Supply Constraints and Strong Demand

Shanghai rubber futures surged more than 4.5% in early February 2026, driven by tightening supply conditions in key producing regions and sustained demand from downstream industries. The most-active natural rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) closed at 16,335 yuan ($2,363.62) per metric ton for May delivery, reflecting a 0.86% increase from previous sessions. Spot prices also rose, with merchants in Shanghai raising offers by 100–300 RMB/ton, as mainstream quotes for Yunbao/Guangken rubber reached 16,350–16,550 RMB/ton.

The upward momentum aligns with seasonal supply constraints in Southeast Asia, where most major rubber-producing regions—excluding Thailand—have entered the off-season. Reduced tapping activity from February through May typically limits output before the peak harvest season resumes in September. Meanwhile, Chinese tire manufacturers, a critical demand driver, have maintained strong purchasing activity despite pre-Lunar New Year shutdowns. Earlier restocking efforts ahead of the holiday had temporarily boosted demand, though rising inventories at Qingdao port suggest buying momentum has stabilized.

International factors also supported prices. A stronger yen reduced demand for yen-denominated Japanese rubber contracts, but firm spot prices and overseas buying bolstered Chinese and Singaporean markets. Additionally, global natural rubber production in 2024 rose 4.5% year-on-year to 14.539 million tons, with China's domestic imports declining 14.86% year-on-year, providing further support to local prices.

Looking ahead, analysts note that weather disruptions in key production areas—such as Thailand's recent floods— could exacerbate supply tightness, while robust downstream demand from China's semi-steel tire industry and growing new energy vehicle sales may sustain price strength. However, seasonal production resumptions and inventory buildups at ports could introduce volatility in the coming months.

According to market analysis: Rubber futures steadied at 188 US cents/kg amid seasonal supply constraints and shifting Chinese demand.
As reported by Brecorder: SHFE rubber contracts rose as firm spot prices and overseas buying offset yen-driven weakness.
Shanghai spot prices climbed: with merchants raising offers by 100–300 RMB/ton.
According to Sun SIRS: Global production increased in 2024, while Chinese imports declined, supporting domestic prices.