Is RTX Overvalued Amid Strong Gains and Defense Sector Optimism?

The recent 61% surge in RTX Corporation's (NYSE: RTX) share price has sparked debate about whether the stock is fairly valued or priced for perfection. As the aerospace and defense sector grapples with geopolitical tensions and rising global military budgets, RTX's valuation appears to reflect a mix of optimism and realism. This analysis evaluates RTX's current valuation through the lens of price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, discounted cash flow (DCF) estimates, and growth assumptions, while weighing in on the risks posed by margin pressures and geopolitical uncertainties.

Valuation Realism: P/E Ratios and Industry Alignment

RTX's P/E ratio of 37.9x as of December 2025 aligns closely with the aerospace and defense industry average of 38.0x and the peer group average of 37.3x. This suggests the market is valuing RTX in line with its sector, neither significantly undervaluing nor overvaluing it relative to peers. However, this metric masks a nuanced picture: while the P/E is below the industry average in November 2025 (38.9x), it has since crept upward, reflecting investor confidence in RTX's growth prospects. According to Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio analysis, RTX's P/E should be closer to 35.5x, indicating the stock is somewhat expensive on this metric.

DCF Analysis: A Clash of Optimism and Caution

Discounted cash flow (DCF) models offer a more granular view. Simply Wall St estimates RTX's intrinsic value at approximately $149.48 per share, based on free cash flow projections that rise from $4.5 billion in 2025 to $12.4 billion by 2035. At current prices of $182–$186, RTX is overvalued by 16.7% to 24.7% relative to its DCF-derived intrinsic value. This discrepancy highlights a tension between the market's bullish expectations and more conservative valuation models.

Analyst price targets, however, suggest a broader range of outcomes. Some forecasts peg RTX's fair value at $195–$196, driven by robust defense demand and long-term aerospace contracts. Conversely, a more cautious view places intrinsic value at $134, factoring in risks like cybersecurity threats and budget volatility. The divergence underscores the uncertainty surrounding RTX's ability to sustain its growth trajectory.

Growth Assumptions: Are Earnings Projections Realistic?

The DCF models rely on aggressive growth assumptions, including a 7.4% discount rate and free cash flow expansion from $4.5 billion to $12.4 billion by 2035. These projections hinge on RTX's capacity to capitalize on its $236 billion backlog and a book-to-bill ratio of 2.27 in the defense segment. While strong demand for defense products-exemplified by a $3.5 billion missile systems contract with Germany-provides near-term visibility, the long-term sustainability of such growth remains untested.

Geopolitical Tailwinds and Margin Pressures

RTX's dual business model-combining high-margin defense contracts with commercial aerospace services- positions it to benefit from both rising defense budgets and structural demand in aviation. However, margin pressures persist. U.S. import tariffs and supply chain disruptions in the commercial aviation segment threaten to erode profitability. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, while boosting defense orders, also introduce volatility in government spending priorities. As Reuters reports, RTX has raised its 2025 forecast as strong demand offsets tariff worries.

Conclusion: A Stock Priced for Perfection?

RTX's valuation reflects a delicate balance between market optimism and fundamental realism. While its P/E ratio aligns with industry benchmarks and its DCF model suggests overvaluation, the company's robust backlog and strategic positioning in a high-growth sector justify a degree of optimism. However, investors must remain cautious: the current price appears to price in perfection, assuming sustained margin expansion and unimpeded growth in defense spending. Risks such as supply chain bottlenecks, budget constraints, and geopolitical shifts could temper these expectations.

For now, RTX remains a compelling but precarious investment. Those comfortable with the risks of a high-growth, high-valuation stock may find value in its long-term potential, while more conservative investors might wait for a pullback to align with DCF estimates.