Royal Caribbean Cruises Extends Rally With 18.03% Seven-Day Surge

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) concluded its most recent session with a notable 4.66% gain, marking its seventh consecutive day of advances and bringing its cumulative seven-day surge to 18.03%. This analysis examines the technical landscape through multiple frameworks, highlighting confluence and divergence signals.
Candlestick Theory
The current rally features consistent green candles with elongated bodies, indicating strong buying pressure. A prominent resistance level near $310 emerged during the latest session, where the price touched $310.88 before closing at $309.69. Support rests at $295.55 (today’s low), reinforced by prior lows at $285.45 (June 26) and $279.57 (June 25). The absence of reversal patterns like doji or shooting stars suggests bullish continuity, though climactic volume may signal short-term exhaustion.
Moving Average Theory
The price trades significantly above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, confirming a robust uptrend. A golden cross materialized earlier when the 50-day MA surpassed both the 100-day and 200-day MAs. The ascending alignment of these averages—ordered 50 > 100 > 200—creates dynamic support and underscores sustained bullish momentum. Any pullback would likely find initial support near the 50-day MA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover, with both the MACD line and signal line advancing in positive territory. This signals strong upward momentum but also aligns with overextended conditions. KDJ oscillators reside in overbought zones, with K and D values exceeding 80. While such readings typically warn of reversal risks, their persistence during strong trends may simply denote momentum. Traders should monitor for potential bearish divergences on any weakening of upward acceleration.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have expanded notably during the current rally, reflecting rising volatility. Prices consistently ride the upper band, confirming bullish strength but also indicating overbought territory. A contraction in bandwidth following this expansion may precede consolidation. The middle band (20-period SMA) aligns with the 50-day MA, reinforcing a key support confluence near $280.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 19% during the latest rally day (4.57M shares vs. 3.84M previous), validating the breakout. This follows a pattern of expanding volume on up-days and contracting volume during minor pullbacks—a hallmark of healthy accumulation. Sustained volume above the 30-day average (approx. 2.6M shares) supports bullish continuation, though climax volume may precede short-term consolidation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads approximately 85, deep in overbought territory (>70). While this suggests overheating, RSI can remain elevated in strong trends. Historical analogs show RCL maintained overbought RSI for multiple weeks during prior surges. Nevertheless, it amplifies near-term mean-reversion risks, particularly given the seven-day rally’s magnitude. A dip below 70 would signal cooling momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of $177.33 (April 9, 2025) and high of $310.88 (June 27, 2025), key retracement levels emerge at $279.38 (23.6%), $259.87 (38.2%), and $244.11 (50%). The 23.6% level converges with the June 24 low ($278.72) and Bollinger mid-band, establishing $279–$280 as critical support. A deeper correction could target the 38.2% zone near $260, aligning with the 100-day MA.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears at the $279–$280 support band, where Fibonacci, moving averages, and Bollinger mid-band converge. This area should cap moderate pullbacks. Divergence emerges in overbought signals (RSI, KDJ) against unbroken price strength and supportive volume—a tension that typically resolves through either consolidation or accelerated blow-off tops. The absence of bearish volume or reversal patterns currently favors continued upward pressure.