Royal Caribbean Cruises Extends Rally With 12.74% Gain Over Six Sessions

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) shares advanced 4.03% to close at $295.80 on June 26, 2025, extending its winning streak to six consecutive sessions with a cumulative gain of 12.74% over this period.
Candlestick Theory
The recent sequence reveals a bullish continuation pattern, characterized by six consecutive white candles closing near session highs – a strong momentum signal. Key support is now established near $272 (June 20 closing low), coinciding with the June 23 bullish hammer reversal pattern. Resistance emerges at the psychological $300 threshold and the June 26 peak of $296.14. The absence of pronounced upper wicks near current levels suggests buying pressure remains intact.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($254), 100-day MA ($226), and 200-day MA ($195) demonstrate robust bullish alignment, with price trading well above all three. The 50-day MA recently crossed above both longer-term averages, confirming a multi-timeframe uptrend. Particularly notable is the 50-day MA's steep ascent – its slope now exceeds 45 degrees, indicating accelerating medium-term momentum. The current price position at 16% above the 50-day MA implies short-term overextension potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histogram shows strengthening positive momentum, with the signal line maintaining above zero since early June. However, the MACD line divergence narrowing relative to price suggests potential deceleration. The KDJ oscillator enters overbought territory (K:78, D:73, J:88), exceeding the 70 threshold that historically preceded minor pullbacks in April and January. This aligns with MACD’s deceleration warning, though no bearish crossover is yet evident.
Bollinger Bands
Price consistently rides the upper Bollinger Band ($290), reflecting strong uptrend momentum. The bands have expanded 22% since early June, signaling heightened volatility. Historically, such prolonged upper-band contact has led to mean-reversion pullbacks toward the 20-period MA ($268), which now serves as dynamic support. The Bollinger Band Width expansion confirms breakout validity but increases near-term reversion probability.
Volume-Price Relationship
The six-day rally occurred on rising volume, peaking at 3.48 million shares on June 26 – 40% above the 20-day average. This volume confirmation validates breakout sustainability. Notably, volume surged during the June 23 reversal candle (3.02M shares), demonstrating accumulation at support. Distribution signals remain absent, with no notable volume spikes on down days since May.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 78, entering overbought territory and matching February and April peaks that preceded 7-10% corrections. However, RSI’s upward slope remains intact, and in strong trends, readings can persist above 70. The indicator warns of exhaustion but requires bearish price confirmation. Current momentum suggests potential for "overbought becoming more overbought" scenarios seen in Q4 2024.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the March 2025 low ($152.71) and June 2025 high ($296.14), key retracement levels emerge. The 23.6% level ($262) aligns with the June 20 swing low, while the 38.2% level ($238) coincides with the 50-day MA and May consolidation zone. The 61.8% level ($206) now represents major trend support. Current price action has respected the 23.6% level during pullbacks, reinforcing its technical significance.
Confluence exists between Fibonacci support ($262), the 50-day MA ($254), and Bollinger mid-band ($268), creating a high-probability demand zone. However, bearish divergence emerges between KDJ overbought signals and price hitting new highs – a caution mirrored in the RSI’s extended reading. While volume confirms the breakout and moving averages affirm the uptrend, the absence of a meaningful correction since the 22% May rally increases vulnerability to profit-taking near $300 resistance. These conditions suggest continued upward momentum in the intermediate term but elevate near-term consolidation probability.