ROST Surges to 52-Week High on Earnings Beat and Guidance Hike

Summary
• Ross Stores (ROST) rockets 8.17% to $173.61, hitting its 52-week high of $173.815
• Q3 earnings of $1.58/share beat estimates by $0.17, with sales up 10% to $5.6B
• Full-year EPS guidance raised to $6.38–$6.46, reflecting 2.2% sequential improvement
• Intraday range spans $163.51 to $173.815, signaling robust institutional buying pressure
Ross Stores’ stock is surging on the back of a blockbuster Q3 earnings report, with the company exceeding both revenue and profit expectations while raising its full-year guidance. The rally reflects strong consumer demand for discounted branded goods and a strategic shift in marketing and inventory management. With the stock trading near its all-time high, investors are now parsing technical and options data to gauge sustainability.

Earnings Beat and Strategic Execution Drive ROST’s Rally
Ross Stores’ 8.17% surge stems from a combination of outperforming Q3 results and a bullish guidance revision. The company reported $1.58/share in earnings, surpassing the $1.41 consensus, while sales grew 10% to $5.6 billion. CEO Jim Conroy highlighted a 7% comparable store sales increase, driven by a compelling branded merchandise strategy and a successful back-to-school season. The stock’s move also reflects optimism around the company’s ability to mitigate tariff costs in Q4 and maintain operating margins above 11.6%. Share repurchases of $262 million in Q3 further signaled management’s confidence in undervaluation.

Discount Retailers Outperform as Walmart Drags Sector
While Ross Stores’ stock surged, the broader discount retail sector faced mixed momentum. Walmart (WMT), the sector’s bellwether, fell 1.3% on concerns over inventory management and pricing pressures. ROST’s outperformance underscores its differentiated strategy in branded off-price retail, with a 7% comp sales growth outpacing WMT’s flat-to-negative trends. The divergence highlights ROST’s ability to capitalize on shifting consumer preferences toward value-driven shopping amid inflationary pressures.

Bullish Setup: ETFs and Options for ROST’s Breakout
• 200-day MA: 142.59 (well below current price)
• 30-day MA: 158.78 (support level)
• RSI: 56.34 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 1.48 (bullish divergence from signal line 1.97)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band (163.77), suggesting overextension
Ross Stores is in a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish, with key resistance at $173.815 (52-week high) and support at $160.53 (30-day MA). The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

• ROST20251128C172.5 (Call, $172.5 strike, Nov 28 expiry)
- IV: 14.28% (low)
- LVR: 71.04% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.68 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.529 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.097 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 14,424 (liquid)
This call option offers explosive potential if ROST breaks above $173.815, with a 5% upside scenario yielding a $1.11 payoff (max(0, 182.29 - 172.5)). Its high gamma and moderate delta make it ideal for a short-term breakout trade.

• ROST20251128C175 (Call, $175 strike, Nov 28 expiry)
- IV: 17.77% (moderate)
- LVR: 120.04% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.43 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.399 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.086 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 3,358 (liquid)
This contract balances risk and reward, with a 5% upside scenario delivering a $0.67 payoff (max(0, 182.29 - 175)). Its moderate delta and high gamma position it well for a continuation of ROST’s rally.

Aggressive bulls should consider ROST20251128C172.5 into a break above $173.815, while conservative traders may target ROST20251128C175 for a measured move.

Backtest Ross Stores Stock Performance
We identified 2 instances since 2022 where Ross Stores (ROST.O) jumped ≥ 8 % in a single session. An event-study back-test on those “8 % surge” dates shows:• Strong, statistically positive follow-through over the next 1–4 trading days (avg +6 % to +8 %, 100 % win rate). • Edge decays after day 5; by day 15 the mean excess return versus the benchmark is near zero. • After day 20 the sample splits, leaving no statistically reliable advantage.To explore the detailed cumulative-return paths, win-rate curve and other diagnostics, open the interactive module below.Interpretation & trading takeaway:1. Short-term momentum: Buying the close after an ≥8 % up-day and holding 1–3 sessions captured most of the edge. 2. Mean-reversion risk: Returns flatten and turn mixed beyond the first week; consider taking profits quickly or implementing a trailing stop. 3. Sample-size caveat: Only two qualifying events occurred in the study window—statistics warrant caution. Combining with similar retail names or relaxing the threshold could improve robustness.Let me know if you’d like sensitivity tests (e.g., 5 % moves, wider hold periods) or to layer in risk controls.

ROST’s Bull Case: Target $185 by Q4 Earnings
Ross Stores’ rally is underpinned by strong fundamentals and a favorable technical setup. The stock’s 52-week high breakout, coupled with elevated operating margins and a bullish guidance revision, suggests a continuation of the upward trend. Key levels to watch include $173.815 (resistance) and $160.53 (support). The sector leader, Walmart (WMT), at -1.3%, highlights ROST’s relative strength. Investors should prioritize the ROST20251128C172.5 call for a short-term breakout trade and monitor the 200-day MA ($142.59) as a critical long-term floor. Watch for a close above $175 to confirm the bullish case.