Ross Stores (ROST) Surges 7.5% on Earnings Beat and Guidance Hike—Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Ross Stores (ROST) rockets 7.5% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $172.86.
• Q3 earnings beat expectations with $1.58 EPS, driven by 10% sales growth and 7% comp.
• Guidance raised to $6.38–$6.46 EPS for 2025, signaling strong holiday season momentum.

Ross Stores’ stock is surging on a blockbuster earnings report and bullish guidance, with the discount retail giant outpacing peers. The stock’s 7.5% rally has pushed it to a 52-week high, fueled by robust sales execution and strategic cost controls. Investors are now weighing whether this momentum can sustain through the critical holiday season.

Earnings Beat and Guidance Hike Ignite Bullish Sentiment
Ross Stores’ 7.5% intraday surge is directly tied to its Q3 earnings report, which exceeded guidance and raised full-year expectations. The company reported $1.58 EPS (vs. $1.48 prior year) and $5.6 billion in sales (up 10% YoY), with comp store sales rising 7%. Management credited strong merchandise assortments, a new marketing campaign, and disciplined expense control for the outperformance. The updated 2025 guidance of $6.38–$6.46 EPS (including $0.16 tariff impact) and a 3–4% comp forecast for Q4 further reinforced confidence in the holiday season’s potential. Tariff-related costs, previously a drag, are now expected to be negligible in Q4, removing a key headwind.

Discount Retail Sector Gains Momentum as Ross Stores Outperforms
The discount retail sector is showing mixed momentum, with Ross Stores outpacing its sector leader, TJX Companies (TJX). While TJX is up 2.73% on the day, ROST’s 7.5% rally reflects stronger execution in its core off-price retail model. Ross’s Q3 results highlight its ability to capitalize on consumer demand for value-driven apparel and home goods, particularly in a high-inflation environment. The company’s focus on brand-name merchandise at steep discounts, combined with aggressive share repurchases ($262 million in Q3), positions it as a sector outperformer. However, investors should monitor TJX’s performance as a barometer for broader sector health.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on ROST’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: $142.59 (well below current price)
• 30-day moving average: $158.78 (below)
• RSI: 56.34 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 1.48 (bearish signal) vs. signal line 1.97
• Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band ($163.77) with middle band at $160.53

ROST’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish divergence (MACD histogram negative) but a long-term bullish trend (price above 200-day MA). The stock is testing its 52-week high of $172.86, with key support at $160.53 (middle Bollinger Band) and resistance at $172.86. A break above $172.86 could trigger a retest of the $175–$180 range. The RSI’s 56.34 level indicates moderate bullish momentum, while the 30-day MA at $158.78 suggests a strong baseline for further gains.

Top Options Picks:
• ROST20251128C170 (Call, $170 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 25.67% (moderate)
- LVR: 40.64%
- Delta: 0.6746 (high)
- Theta: -0.5783 (high decay)
- Gamma: 0.0548 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 9,758 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($181.23): $11.23/share. This call offers aggressive leverage for a potential breakout above $170, with high liquidity for entry/exit.

• ROST20251128C172.5 (Call, $172.5 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 23.29% (moderate)
- LVR: 68.00%
- Delta: 0.5287 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.4896 (high decay)
- Gamma: 0.0668 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 9,838 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($181.23): $8.73/share. This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a continuation of the current bullish trend.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should target the $170–$172.5 strike range for short-term gains, while conservative investors may use the $160.53 support level as a buy point. The sector’s strength, combined with Ross’s guidance, suggests a high probability of holding above $160.53 into the holidays.

Backtest Ross Stores Stock Performance
Key insights from the event-study back-test:• Only two qualifying ≥ 8 % one-day surges occurred in Ross Stores (ROST.O) from January 2022 to 21 Nov 2025, so statistical power is limited.• The short-term follow-through was strong: on average the next-day return was +3.7 %, cumulating to +7.9 % after three trading days—both materially above the S&P 500 benchmark over the same windows.• Performance advantage faded after roughly one week; beyond the 10-day horizon excess returns lost significance and turned slightly negative after two weeks, indicating mean-reversion.• Win-rate stayed above 50 % through Day 30, but the small event count means those longer-horizon numbers are not statistically reliable.Practical takeaway: if you wish to capitalise on large upside shocks in ROST, the historical evidence suggests closing the position within 2-4 trading days captures most of the edge while minimising reversion risk.You can inspect the full time-series curves, cumulative P&L and significance plots in the interactive panel below.Feel free to explore different holding windows or add stop-loss rules; let me know if you'd like further refinements or sensitivity tests.

ROST’s Bull Run Gains Legs—Act Now Before the 52-Week High Test
Ross Stores’ 7.5% rally is a clear signal of its strong earnings execution and bullish guidance, positioning it as a top performer in the discount retail sector. The stock’s test of its 52-week high at $172.86 and the sector leader TJX’s 2.73% gain suggest continued momentum. Investors should prioritize the $170–$172.5 call options for aggressive exposure or use the $160.53 support level as a strategic entry point. With the holiday season approaching and Ross’s guidance intact, the key is to secure positions before the $172.86 level is decisively broken. Act now—this is a high-conviction trade for the next 7–10 days.