Ross Stores Rises 0.49% with $440M in Volume Ranking 309th as Bernstein Hikes Target on Strong Discount Retail Trends

Market Snapshot

Ross Stores (ROST) closed with a 0.49% increase on February 25, 2026, as the stock traded with a volume of $0.44 billion, ranking 309th in market activity for the day. The modest gain aligns with broader market dynamics in the retail sector, where off-price retailers have benefited from sustained consumer spending trends. Despite the rise in share price, the trading volume remained below the average levels seen in prior quarters, reflecting a cautious investor approach ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings report in March.

Key Drivers

Bernstein’s recent price target upgrade from $170 to $180 for ROST underscores the analyst firm’s confidence in Ross Stores’ ability to capitalize on the current consumer spending environment. The firm cited “very strong holiday trends” in the off-price retail segment, supported by real-time data showing accelerating foot traffic and robust card spending during the third quarter of 2025. This upgrade, while maintaining a “Market Perform” rating, highlights the structural advantages of Ross’s business model, including its inventory flexibility and cost discipline, which have enabled consistent profitability despite tariff-related headwinds.

The third quarter of 2025 provided a strong foundation for the bullish sentiment. Ross reported total sales growth of 10% to $5.6 billion, with comparable store sales rising 7%. Operating margin reached 11.6%, a notable achievement considering a $0.05 per share drag from tariff costs. Earnings per share (EPS) increased to $1.58 from $1.48 in the prior year, reflecting disciplined cost management. For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved $16.1 billion in sales and $4.61 in EPS, with inventory levels rising 9% overall and 15% per store to meet anticipated holiday demand. The expansion of 90 new stores (36 Ross and four DD’s Discounts) further solidified Ross’s footprint, positioning it to capture growth in value-driven retail.

The company’s forward-looking guidance also played a role in shaping market expectations. For the fourth quarter, Ross anticipates comparable sales growth of 3%–4% and EPS of $1.77–$1.85, with minimal tariff-related costs. The estimated full-year impact of tariffs is capped at $0.15 per share, a manageable figure given the company’s strong operating leverage. Analysts have highlighted Ross’s ability to convert credit-fueled consumer demand into sales, particularly as households increasingly rely on revolving credit to sustain spending. However, this dynamic presents a dual-edged sword: while elevated card spending supports volume, it also reflects financial stress, with 5.7% of consumers having at least one payment 60+ days past due as of December 2025.

Ross’s competitive positioning within the off-price retail sector further differentiates it from peers like TJX Companies. With a forward P/E of 22x, Ross is valued as a defensive play compared to TJX’s growth-oriented model. This premium suggests market perception of Ross as a steadier operator with less volatility, albeit with potentially lower upside in an accelerated consumer spending scenario. The company’s “Treasure Hunt” appeal—centered on deep discounts for middle-income shoppers—has proven resilient during economic cycles, as evidenced by its performance during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.

The upcoming March 3 earnings report will serve as a critical test for Ross Stores. Investors will scrutinize same-store sales growth and inventory turnover to validate the credit-fueled demand thesis. A slowdown in discretionary spending, even at discount prices, could pressure margins and justify a reevaluation of the $180 price target. Meanwhile, the K-shaped consumer divide—where some shoppers use credit as a planning tool while others rely on it as a lifeline—adds complexity to the company’s outlook. For now, Ross remains a focal point in the off-price retail narrative, balancing growth ambitions with the need to navigate macroeconomic headwinds.