Ross Gerber’s Bold Claim: Reverse Trump Policies to Restore Market Glory

The U.S. stock market’s path to reclaiming its all-time high (ATH) hinges on a simple fix, according to Ross Gerber: undo the economic legacy of Donald Trump. The CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management argues that reversing tariffs, trade wars, and aggressive negotiation tactics could reignite investor confidence—and even a rumor of such a move has historically sent markets soaring. But as global markets continue to grapple with the fallout of Trump-era policies, the question remains: Is Gerber’s vision realistic, or just wishful thinking?

The Tariff Toll: Markets React with Fury

Gerber’s critique centers on the cascading economic damage caused by Trump’s tariffs, which he describes as “a disaster in 3rd grade Econ.” The data backs him up: after Trump’s sweeping tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, global markets lost over $10 trillion in value by mid-2025, with an initial $2 trillion wipeout triggered solely by the policy announcements.

The S&P 500, for instance, slumped 18% from its pre-tariff peak, while sectors like industrials and tech—historically tariff-sensitive—suffered deeper declines. Gerber argues that these policies eroded corporate profits, inflated consumer costs, and destabilized global supply chains, creating a “perfect storm” of economic headwinds.

Gerber vs. Ackman: A Clash of Worldviews

Gerber’s most vocal opponent in this debate is hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, who defends Trump’s “tough love” approach. Ackman claims that aggressive tactics are necessary to “reset” trade relationships, particularly with China. Gerber, however, dismisses this as “a bad way to do business,” pointing to the market’s visceral rejection of such policies.

Gerber’s rebuttal hinges on the idea that markets punish unpredictability. When Trump’s administration hinted at tariff rollbacks earlier this year—despite no concrete action—the S&P 500 surged 5% in two days. “Even a rumor [of reversal] sent the market way higher,” Gerber noted. This “policy volatility premium” has become a drag on valuations, he argues, as investors demand higher returns for bearing the risk of sudden policy shifts.

The Path to ATH: Easier Said Than Done?

Gerber’s solution—reverse all Trump policies—is politically fraught. Undoing tariffs would require bipartisan cooperation in a deeply divided Congress, and the administration has shown little appetite for backtracking. Yet Gerber remains confident, citing historical parallels: “It’s just a matter of time till we see all the ‘exceptions’ and ‘deals’ being made.”

The data partially supports this. During periods of tariff escalation (e.g., 2018–2019), the S&P 500 underperformed its long-term average by 9%, while periods of tariff reduction or pause saw a 7% outperformance. If this pattern holds, rolling back tariffs could add roughly 8–12% to equity valuations, according to Gerber’s estimates.

The Elephant in the Room: Long-Term Damage

Gerber’s thesis faces a critical challenge: even if policies are reversed, can markets fully recover from structural damage? Industries like manufacturing and agriculture, which bore the brunt of tariffs, may never regain their pre-2017 competitiveness. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s 2025 designation of the year as the “year of alternative assets” suggests investors are already diversifying away from traditional equities.

Yet Gerber insists the market’s “truth-telling” mechanism will eventually prevail. “The simplest path is to remove the uncertainty,” he argues. “Take the poison out of the system, and let the economy heal.”

Conclusion: Markets Crave Certainty, Not Drama

Gerber’s argument is compelling: reversing Trump’s economically illiterate policies could be the catalyst for a market rebound. The $10 trillion in lost global market value since 2021 underscores the scale of the problem, while short-term market jumps on reversal rumors prove investor sentiment is fragile yet responsive.

However, the political and logistical hurdles are immense. Even if policy shifts occur, the scars of tariff-induced inflation, supply chain disruptions, and eroded diplomatic trust may linger. For now, Gerber’s vision remains a “what if” scenario—but with markets still 15% below their 2021 highs, investors are desperate for a lifeline. If history is any guide, the first administration to signal a retreat from chaos could see markets rally—proving, once again, that stability is the ultimate growth asset.