ROSEUSDT Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis on 2025-10-04

• ROSEUSDT declined 7.4% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.02592.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.02785–0.02748 on 16:00 ET 2025-10-03.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 28, while MACD turned negative.
• Volatility peaked at 16:00 ET before narrowing during the early ET session.
• Volume surged at 15:30 ET (0.02629), but failed to push price higher.

The ROSEUSDT pair for Oasis/Tether opened at 0.02742 on 12:00 ET–1, reached a high of 0.02788, and hit a low of 0.02541 before closing at 0.02592 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total volume amounted to 176,137,791.5 USD, with a notional turnover of ~$48,189,933 over the 24-hour window. The session was marked by a strong bearish reversal from key resistance levels and a divergence between price and volume.

Structure & Formations

Price broke a 15-minute resistance at 0.02785 with a bearish engulfing pattern, followed by a sharp sell-off into the 0.0261–0.0263 support range. A bearish divergence in volume was observed after the 0.02617–0.02636 swing, where price failed to break above despite rising volume. The 0.02611 level acted as a temporary floor before the final leg down to 0.02541. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.02595 (from 0.02541 to 0.02641) now appears key for near-term direction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both 20SMA (0.02641) and 50SMA (0.02649), indicating bearish bias. For the daily chart, price sits below the 50DMA and 100DMA, reinforcing a medium-term downtrend. The 200DMA has held firm around 0.02675 as a long-term resistance. The 15-minute chart suggests short-term momentum favors sellers.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative at 0.02592, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, indicating bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory (~28) at the end of the session, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but not necessarily trend reversal. A bearish crossover in the MACD histogram occurred at 15:30 ET, aligning with the 0.02629 high and failed breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly at 16:00 ET, with the upper band reaching 0.02788 and the lower band dropping to 0.02721. By 20:00 ET, the bands began to contract, signaling a consolidation phase. Price closed near the lower band at 0.02592, reinforcing bearish sentiment. If volatility expands again, a retest of 0.02551 could trigger further selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15:30 ET candle (1542509.0 USD), coinciding with the 0.02629 high, but price failed to follow through. The 15:30–15:45 ET window saw the highest notional turnover (~$1.3M) and marked a bearish divergence. A sharp volume drop after 18:00 ET signaled reduced participation. Price and volume diverged after the 0.02617–0.02636 range, indicating potential exhaustion in the short-term sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.02541 low to the 0.02641 high include 38.2% at 0.02573 and 61.8% at 0.02595, which ROSEUSDT approached at close. The 61.8% level is likely to be a critical support zone in the next 24 hours. A break below 0.02541 would expose the 100% extension at 0.02497. On the daily chart, the 0.02675 level represents a long-term Fibonacci resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 15-minute 20SMA and RSI levels to identify short-term reversals. For instance, a sell signal could be triggered when price breaks below the 20SMA and RSI drops below 30, confirmed by a bearish divergence in volume. This approach was partially validated during the 16:00–16:45 ET window, where a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence aligned with the price decline. The 0.02595 level may now serve as a dynamic stop-loss for a short trade.